Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 211009
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
409 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

THE PATTERN OVER THE WEST FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ABOVE A CLOSE LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH ENHANCED SHOWER COVERAGE ON MONDAY
PASSED EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW OFF OF CALIFORNIA
SHIFTS INLAND TODAY CAUSING FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE WEST ADVECTING
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF DYNAMIC
FORCING THERE WILL BE LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
FEWER SHOWERS AND CLOUDS COMBINED WITH WAA WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF WARMING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON TUESDAY...AS THE THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENCE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THOUGH
STILL SUFFICIENT TO FUEL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. INCREASED CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
AFFECTS THE AREA. STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION AND ASSOD
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN CALIF
AND ARIZONA. BY NOON THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL START MOVING NE
HEADING TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS. THE NAM AND EC AGREE THAT SOME
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL MTNS
WHILE GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE. AS WE`LL STILL BE UNDER A RIDGE
AXIS AND THERE`S NO REAL SHORTWAVE NOR SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...THE LIGHTER PRECIP SOLN LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION...PRECIP DOES INCREASE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FAVORING AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70.

GFS/EC IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL OPEN UP BY FRIDAY
MORNING AS SPOTTY PRECIP CONTINUES FOR THE REGION. MORE RIDGING
BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THIS RIDGE WILL
BE VERY DIRTY AS MODELS KEEP PRECIP IN THE PICTURE UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT MUCH REST THOUGH AS THE NEXT TROUGH BRINGS MORE
PRECIP FOR MUCH OF WRN CO/ERN UT SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY PRECIP-FREE.

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM WITH ISOLD/SCTD PRECIP BEING COMMON. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
SEE BRIEF MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME DUE TO CONVECTION AND PASSING
RAINSHOWERS AFTER 18Z. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MVFR TO BE TOO
PROLONGED HOWEVER SO LEFT OUT OF TAF. SHOWERS AND CONVECTION MAY
CAUSE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KTS OR SO. MOST PRECIP WILL END
SHORTLY AFTER SUN SET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGR


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