Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 012249
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
449 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MOIST...WITH OVER
0.5" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...ALLOWING LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS A TAD DRIER
SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS. SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A LARGE CLOSED LOW OFF OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER
DURING THE WORK WEEK. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN ON SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH A CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE EXITS THE FORECAST AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MODELS DIVERGE AT
THIS POINT WITH A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO SEEN IN THE ECMWF...WITH A FASTER AND SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK FORECASTED BY THE GFS. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS
THAT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FUELED FROM HEATING OF THE DAY AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER REGION ARE EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER SUNSET.
IMPACT TO FLIGHT TERMINALS SO FAR HAS BEEN MINIMAL BUT GUSTY WINDS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02/02Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT ARE NOT PROBABLE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE AIRMASS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...TGJT



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