Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FGUS75 KGJT 072104
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-107-
111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-281915-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 PM MDT TUE APR 7 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 3...

THIS 2015 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER
COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER
BASINS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2015 FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT IS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE UPPER COLORADO...EAGLE...UPPER GREEN...
YAMPA...LITTLE SNAKE...ROARING FORK...GUNNISON...SAN JUAN...DOLORES
RIVER BASINS IN UTAH AND COLORADO. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS MUCH LOWER
THAN USUAL FOR THE DUCHESNE RIVER BASIN IN EASTERN UTAH.

AS OF APRIL 1 THERE ARE NO RIVER SITES AT ANY EXCEEDANCE LEVEL
FORECAST TO PEAK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS
FOR OTHER SITES AT DIFFERENT EXCEEDANCE LEVELS ARE IN A TABLE BELOW.

VOLUME FORECAST FOR THE 2015 APRIL THROUGH JULY PERIOD IS BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL THE BASINS IN WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH. THE OFFICIAL MONTHLY VOLUME FORECAST AS OF APRIL 1 IS IN A
TABLE BELOW.

SPRING TEMPERATURES AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE OF PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL
YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK CAN ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
APRIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SNOW MELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND INCREASE THE
FLOOD THREAT.


OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------

PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS SEASON HAS BEEN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
OVER MOST OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.

THE DRY AND WARM TREND CONTINUED THROUGH MARCH. MARCH PRECIPITATION
AND SNOWFALL WAS BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WERE 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MARCH. SNOW MELT STARTED EARLY DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES.

FEBRUARY STARTED OUT VERY DRY LEADING TO PRECIPITATION BELOW TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST BASINS. THE EXCEPTIONS WERE THE FAR UPPER
COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND THE FAR UPPER SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN WHICH
HAD NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO A COUPLE LATE IN THE MONTH STORMS.

THE LAST PART OF FEBRUARY SAW A COUPLE OF LARGE SCALE MOIST SYSTEMS
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION HELPED TO INCREASE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE) VALUES. FROM THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY TO MARCH
1 THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BASINS INCREASED 8 TO 16 PERCENT OF
NORMAL SWE. THE SNOW THE LAST WEEKEND IN FEBRUARY AND THE FIRST PART
OF MARCH HAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTENT AND GREATLY INCREASED THE
SNOW PACK OVER ALL THE BASINS. JUST IN THE FIRST PART OF MARCH
ANOTHER 3 TO 9 PERCENT OF NORMAL HAS BEEN ADDED WITH SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH ADDING THE MOST AT 17 PERCENT. BELOW IS A TABLE OF SWE THROUGH
MARCH 5.

BASIN AVERAGED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES FOR WESTERN COLORADO
RANGE FROM 77 TO 101 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND FOR EASTERN UTAH 70 TO
101 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER GREEN RIVER
ABOVE FLAMING GORGE RESERVOIR IS 107 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

THE TREND IN THE THE UPPER COLORADO AND EAGLE RIVERS CONTINUED...THE
BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR WESTERN COLORADO WERE IN THE UPPER
COLORADO AND EAGLE RIVER BASINS AND MAINLY IN THE FAR UPPER PART OF
THE BASINS. FARTHER WEST IN EACH OF THESE BASINS SNOW ACCUMULATION
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL.

JANUARY PRECIPITATION WAS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE BASINS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE EXCEPTION
WAS OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO WHERE
PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR JANUARY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT FELL DID NOT IMPROVE THE SNOWPACK IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO HELP REDUCE THE
SNOWPACK AT LOWER AND MIDDLE SLOPE LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
FEBRUARY.

BASIN SNOWPACK CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF MEDIAN...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2014 TO APRIL 1 2015:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
YAMPA/WHITE                 63
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS        81
ROARING FORK                65
GUNNISON                    63
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL          52
SAN JUAN                    53
ANIMAS                      58

IN EASTERN UTAH...

BASIN                   SNOW WATER
                        EQUIVALENT
-----                   ----------
GREEN                       74
DUCHESNE                    37
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH           22
----------------------------------


MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS ISSUED APRIL 1 2015
LOCATION                    FLOOD    FCST              FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2015-04-01   1700   1900   2200   2900   3200
ELK - MILNER, NR            5750 2015-04-01   2000   2300   2600   3000   4000
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21200 2015-04-01   4500   5000   6000   7000   8000
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR     -999 2015-04-01   1300   1600   2200   2600   3200
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK      -999 2015-04-01   5500   6500   8500   9500  10500
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8324 2015-04-01   1500   1600   2000   2300   2700
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2180 2015-04-01    250    300    350    400    550
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1530 2015-04-01    500    550    650    800   1000
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    410 2015-04-01     60     70     85    100    130
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6550 2015-04-01   1700   1900   2400   3000   4500
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     16900 2015-04-01   4100   4400   5600   7500  10000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3130 2015-04-01    850   1000   1200   1450   1900
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17200 2015-04-01   2400   3000   3500   4700   5700
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2015-04-01   7500   8500  10500  14000  18000
EAST - ALMONT               3170 2015-04-01    800    930   1050   1300   1500
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  13870 2015-04-01   1000   1350   1650   2100   2500
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1410 2015-04-01     50     65    100    130    190
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19520 2015-04-01   7000   7500   7500   8000   8000
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1780 2015-04-01    450    540    630    700    820
DOLORES - DOLORES           7130 2015-04-01   1250   1400   1700   1900   2400
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   3190 2015-04-01    600    730    800    950   1050
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46200 2015-04-01  12500  14000  16500  21000  26000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5000 2015-04-01    650    770    930   1130   1330
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10200 2015-04-01   2000   2280   2600   3100   3300
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         8810 2015-04-01   2000   2300   2800   3600   3800

----------------------------------------------------

RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF MARCH 31:
                            C U R R E N T   Y R     1981-2010
                          EOM      % OF     % OF    MAR 31        USABLE
                          STORAGE  AVERAGE  CAPACITYAVG STORAGE   CAPACITY
   COLORADO - LAKE GRANB|    477.5|    152|     97| 314.3|     490.3|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK|      8.4|    102|     92|   8.2|       9.1|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI|     80.4|    132|     83|  60.8|      96.9|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO|     45.8|    105|     69|  43.7|      66.0|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   BLUE - DILLON RES    |    244.8|    114|     96| 215.5|     254.0|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   BLUE - GREEN MTN RES |     68.6|    104|     47|  65.9|     146.9|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST|     20.2|     81|     47|  25.1|      43.0|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE|     74.7|    118|     73|  63.2|     102.0|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES|     16.3|    115|     49|  14.2|      32.9|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK |     78.7|    126|     74|  62.4|     106.2|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   GUNNISON - BLUE MESA |    573.3|    126|     69| 454.9|     829.5|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   GUNNISON - MORROW POI|    110.4|     99|     94| 111.7|     117.0|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE|     16.7|    103|     95|  16.2|      17.5|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES|      5.0|    164|     30|   3.1|      16.7|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY|     77.6|    111|     94|  70.0|      83.0|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   DOLORES - MCPHEE RES |    195.4|     68|     51| 285.4|     381.1|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   LOS PINOS - VALLECITO|    101.0|    160|     81|  63.2|     125.4|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES|   1150.4|     88|     68|1310.4|    1696.0|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   FLORIDA - LEMON RES, |     24.0|    110|     60|  21.7|      39.8|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   COLORADO - LAKE POWEL|  10913.1|     64|     45|    16941.7|   24322.0|

----------------------------------------------------

SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF APRIL 1 2015 FOR THE
PERIOD APRIL TO JULY 2014 UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED

STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
DEVELOPED:                    APR 1 2015

YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
YAMPA RIVER
  STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV            APR-JUL   18.5    80     24   15.9     23
  STEAMBOAT SPRINGS               APR-JUL    185    71    240    145    260
ELK RIVER
  MILNER, NR                      APR-JUL    235    73    290    184    320
ELKHEAD CK
  LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR     APR-JUL     33    45     47   19.7     73
YAMPA RIVER
  MAYBELL, NR                     APR-JUL    580    62    765    425    935
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
  SLATER, NR                      APR-JUL     85    54    121     59    156
  DIXON, NR                       APR-JUL    152    44    225     96    345
  LILY, NR                        APR-JUL    152    44    235     89    345
YAMPA RIVER
  DEERLODGE PARK                  APR-JUL    730    59    960    515   1240
WHITE RIVER
  MEEKER, NR                      APR-JUL    185    66    235    148    280
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    185    66    240    148    280

UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR         APR-JUL    205    93    265    165    220
WILLOW CK
  WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR       APR-JUL     39    83     55     27     47
FRASER RIVER
  WINTER PARK                     APR-JUL   18.0    93     22   14.5   19.4
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
  WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N  APR-JUL     90    94    110     74     96
BLUE RIVER
  DILLON RES                      APR-JUL    170   104    220    138    163
  GREEN MTN RES                   APR-JUL    275   100    350    225    275
MUDDY CK
  WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESERVOIR      APR-JUL     40    74     59     27     54
COLORADO RIVER
  KREMMLING, NR                   APR-JUL    800    93   1020    660    860
EAGLE RIVER
  GYPSUM, BLO                     APR-JUL    280    84    395    225    335
COLORADO RIVER
  DOTSERO, NR                     APR-JUL   1210    86   1640    995   1400
FRYING PAN RIVER
  RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR           APR-JUL    108    78    150     85    139
ROARING FORK RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS                APR-JUL    510    74    660    415    690
COLORADO RIVER
  GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO           APR-JUL   1750    83   2360   1430   2110
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL   1840    78   2550   1500   2360
PLATEAU CK
  CAMEO, NR                       APR-JUL     41    33     64     25    124

GUNNISON BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
TAYLOR RIVER
  TAYLOR PARK RES                 APR-JUL     71    72     90     60     99
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    110    71    145     92    155
EAST RIVER
  ALMONT                          APR-JUL    117    64    170     92    182
GUNNISON RIVER
  GUNNISON, NR                    APR-JUL    235    64    335    190    370
TOMICHI CK
  GUNNISON                        APR-JUL     57    77     74     40     74
LAKE FORK RIVER
  GATEVIEW                        APR-JUL    105    85    135     80    123
GUNNISON RIVER
  BLUE MESA RES                   APR-JUL    480    71    650    385    675
  MORROW POINT RES                APR-JUL    520    70    690    425    740
  CRYSTAL RES                     APR-JUL    580    69    750    485    835
MUDDY CK
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         MAR-JUN     40    42     57     29     96
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         APR-JUN     35    38     52     24     91
  PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR         APR-JUL     37    38     54     26     97
NF GUNNISON RIVER
  SOMERSET, NR                    APR-JUL    165    56    215    115    295
SURFACE CK
  CEDAREDGE                       APR-JUL    6.0    36   10.0    2.5   16.8
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
  RIDGWAY RES                     APR-JUL     71    70    100     57    101
  COLONA                          APR-JUL     84    61    125     63    137
  DELTA                           APR-JUL     56    50     90     37    113
GUNNISON RIVER
  GRAND JUNCTION, NR              APR-JUL    930    63   1280    750   1480

DOLORES BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
DOLORES RIVER
  DOLORES                         APR-JUL    140    57    188    100    245
  MCPHEE RES                      APR-JUL    145    49    220    105    295
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
  PLACERVILLE, NR                 APR-JUL     82    64    114     70    128
DOLORES RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL    250    44    350    185    565

UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  CISCO, NR                       APR-JUL   3000    68   4250   2430   4440

SAN JUAN BASIN
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS                  APR-JUL     95    44    142     67    215
  CARRACAS, NR                    APR-JUL    165    43    240    120    380
RIO BLANCO RIVER
  PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM  APR-JUL     27    50     38   18.0     54
NAVAJO RIVER
  CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO    APR-JUL     31    48     42     21     65
PIEDRA RIVER
  ARBOLES, NR                     APR-JUL    105    50    160     77    210
LOS PINOS RIVER
  VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR     APR-JUL    115    59    159     80    194
SAN JUAN RIVER
  NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR       APR-JUL    310    42    490    225    735
FLORIDA RIVER
  LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR          APR-JUL     27    49     40   18.0     55
ANIMAS RIVER
  DURANGO                         APR-JUL    260    63    340    200    415
SAN JUAN RIVER
  FARMINGTON                      APR-JUL    480    44    730    370   1100
LA PLATA RIVER
  HESPERUS                        APR-JUL   10.0    43   16.0    6.0     23
SAN JUAN RIVER
  BLUFF, NR                       APR-JUL    440    40    675    325   1100
MANCOS RIVER
  MANCOS, NR                      APR-JUL   14.0    45     20    7.8     31

EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN

GREEN RIVER
  FLAMING GORGE RES, FLAMING GOR  APR-JUL    650    66    920    440    980
WHITE RIVER
  WATSON, NR                      APR-JUL    185    66    240    148    280
BIG BRUSH CK
  VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV  APR-JUL    7.0    33   14.0    4.2     21
ASHLEY CK
  VERNAL, NR                      APR-JUL   15.6    31     34   10.5     50
WHITEROCKS RIVER
  WHITEROCKS, NR                  APR-JUL     23    43     39   16.3     54
UINTA RIVER
  NEOLA, NR                       APR-JUL     33    45     53     20     74
DUCHESNE RIVER
  RANDLETT, NR                    APR-JUL    105    27    150     68    385


LAKE POWELL
                                  PERIOD      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
COLORADO RIVER
  LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT   APR-JUL   3750    52   5700   2600   7160

MP    MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP%   MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.
RMAX  VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN  VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG   AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.

ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.


CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR APRIL HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. THE
THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM MAY THROUGH JULY INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND EQUAL CHANCES OF EITHER ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY THE ENSO IS IN A WEAK EL NINO
AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY SPRING AND THEN MOVE TOWARD
NEUTRAL.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT SNOW ACCUMULATION AND CONDITIONS COULD
CHANGE THROUGH THE SPRING.

CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI

DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.

$$

AS


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