Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 050110
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
810 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DRY ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA LEADS TO VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. AM SEEING A FEW SHOWERS WITH BASES NEAR 10K FEE
RESULTING IN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF CWA.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS THEY ATTEMPT TO WORK
NORTH INTO A EVEN MORE MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO GRADUALLY CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS
QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN INHERITED FORECAST...BUT WITH DRY
ATMOPSHERE...WAS CONCERNED GUIDANCE SEEMED TO WARM ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH WHERE DECENT RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...NUDGED FORECAST LOWS
UPWARDS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE SEE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. NOT A LOT TO KEY IN ON FOR
POP PLACEMENT...BUT FOLLOWED 850 HPA THETAE/WARM AIR ADVIECTION.
NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY...MAINLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR LESS SO
DROPPED WEATHER MENTION TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T. BEST CHANCES
OF THUNDER ARE ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE
PLAINS LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE. WITH WINDS INCREASING ALOFT
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED LOWS QUITE A BIT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION.

THE PATTERN THEN BECOMES LESS ACROSS FOR A FEW DAYS...UNTIL
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. IN BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS...MODELS HINT THAT THE FLOW WILL BE FAR FROM CLEAN...BUT
HARD TO GAUGE TIMING. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT MID-RANGE POPS IN THE
THURSDAY THROUGH SAT TIME FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONCENTRATED ON THE TWO SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS AT OR
BELOW 12KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SETTLE TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BY EVENING...INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK



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