Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 050616
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK
FOR SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON. WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED CLOSE TO THE REGION...SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 216 AM EDT...A SFC COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS IN PLACE...ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN DRYING UP AND NOT REACHING THE GROUND.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER/SPRINKLE...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT...SUCH AS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADKS...ARE ALREADY STARTING TO CLEAR OUT. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TOWARDS THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE
CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...SLOWING AND WEAKENING DOWN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE SOUTH OF
OUR REGION.

HIGHER DEWPOINTS (IN THE 50S) LOOK TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA OF THE
STALLED FRONT ON TUESDAY THUS THE SHOWER THREAT COULD ACTUALLY
INCREASE A LITTLE...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE CAPITAL REGION
AND POINTS NORTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY.

CLOUDS LOOK TO DECREASE FROM ALBANY NORTH AS TUESDAY WEARS ON. ANY
THREAT FOR AN EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE GONE BY MIDDAY. RH
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOWER AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OF TODAY.

FURTHER SOUTH...THERE COULD MORE CLOUDS WHICH COULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL PRESS THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH AND OUT OF OUR REGION. THE SKY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS MOST AREAS. ANY EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WELL SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE. THE WHOLE REGION LOOKS DRY WITH COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S WELL
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE GREAT MAY DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
PROVIDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THIS SUNSHINE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS...MID 60S TO LOWER
70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR OUR REGION. OVERHEAD...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM MOVING TOO QUICKLY
AWAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONABLE WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

BY THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST TO OUR EAST AND THE RIDGE
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH BACK TO AT LEAST AROUND 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM
TEMPERATURES...BUT FEATURE AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH IMPACTING THE CAROLINAS.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING FOR FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND LOOKS
SCATTERED...WITH DIURNAL HEATING BEING THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
SHOWERS/CONVECTION AS THE REGION REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
FOR SATURDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME...WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE
REGION AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT AS A MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST
REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
FOR SHOWERS WITH THE BOUNDARY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S TO
NEAR 80. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S...WITH LOWS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT HAVE
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
SHOWERS FROM TAFS. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A PERIOD THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTING VFR CEILINGS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA BY THIS EVENING. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HOWEVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z/WED AND
WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO ONLY KPOU.

WESTERLY WINDS IS THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DIMINISH IN
THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL /GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ HAS NOT
OCCURRED IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE OFFICIALS
HAVE NOTED THAT FOREST FUELS ARE RATHER DRY AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. MOST AREAS WILL WIND
UP STAYING DRY AND NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THIS
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOUDY TO START THE DAY...SOME CLEARING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RH VALUES WILL VARY
QUITE A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON...GETTING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR
LESS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...BUT HOLDING IN THE 30S AND EVEN 40S
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

THE WIND TODAY WILL BE LIGHT...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS MOST
AREAS...5 TO 15 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS ONLY TO AROUND 20 MPH AT
MOST.

THERE WILL BE DRY WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER EACH NIGHT TO BETWEEN 75-90 PERCENT ALONG
WITH A LIGHT WIND AND A LITTLE DEW FORMATION. EACH AFTERNOON WILL
SEE RH VALUES FALL TO 30 PERCENT OR LOWER.

THE WIND EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 15
MPH...WITH ANY GUSTS REMAINING BELOW 25 MPH.

NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND STALL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY...ALTHOUGH
MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY. SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE NEARBY BOUNDARY IN PLACE. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR LATE
WED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO QPF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT
FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT...WHERE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEB SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



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