Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 181949
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
349 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY. A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
THE AREA RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK
WINDS ARE OCCURRING NOW AND WILL LAST THROUGH 21Z, BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANY DIURNAL CU ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND A CLEAR SKY/LIGHT WIND SCENARIO,
WE WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST PA OR THE FINGER
LAKES, MOST AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY BUT WITH H85 TEMPS ABOUT 2C TO 5C
COOLER, TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER
CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER
COLORADO WILL HELP DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
AHEAD OF THIS LOW WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF STEADY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT.

WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING A STRONGER CUT OFF LOW WILL BECOME THE
MAIN PLAYER OVER MINNESOTA AND WILL SLIDE EAST AND DEVELOP A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEAN
TROF AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP LATER MONDAY, A 2ND ROUND OF RAIN
WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD
BECOME DRY SLOTTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER BREAK IN
RAIN BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT
6K FT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED CI ON SUNDAY. VALLEY FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SFC
TROF WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. E/SE WINDS ON SUNDAY AROUND
5-8 KNOTS

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT-THU...RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESPECIALLY SUN NGT TO MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
NORTHEAST PA ZONES AS WELL AS SULLIVAN, DELAWARE, AND OTSEGO
COUNTIES IN NY DUE TO DRY FINE FUELS, DROPPING RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BELOW 30 PERCENT, AND GUSTY NW WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH. THESE FACTORS WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY OUTDOOR FIRES. FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES ACROSS CENTRAL NY, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO
BE MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER THESE AREAS FALL JUST SHORT OF RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THIS PAST
WEEK EXCEEDING A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ046-057-
     062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM
FIRE WEATHER...


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