Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 070828
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
328 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...H5 TROF WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A S/W TROUGH
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 850-700MB TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO AN INCREASE AN AFTERNOON HIGHS UP INTO THE
LOWER 90S MIDDLE/UPPER VALLEY WITH UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEY
EACH DAY.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING FOR
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER THAT HAPPENS TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE STRONG
INVERSION /MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS/. MODELS ONCE AGAIN
PROG A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR AND GFS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA MADRES THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT WEST THIS EVENING
THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS CIN INCREASES RAPIDLY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A 500 MB TROUGH THROUGH THE TEXAS BIG BEND WILL ONCE
AGAIN INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEIGHBORING HIGH TERRAIN OF
MEXICO...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE BRO CWFA...
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN THIRD AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF TEXAS NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS...SO SUCCESSIVE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THIS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO THE BRO CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARDS...DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNTIL ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
OUT WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. A GREATLY ENHANCED OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE INTRUSION AND
STALLING OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST 500 MB
FLOW OVERHEAD...AND THE FORMATION AND PERSISTENCE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE BRO CWFA. WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ALSO BE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY AND
FLOODING RAINFALL MAY EXIST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER
...HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST AND WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS HEAVY/FLOODING RAINFALL THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO MAJOR SURPRISES FOR THE TEMPERATURES...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 16 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL HAVE SCEC ACROSS ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND GULF WATERS TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY SCEC WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS ALL
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ONCE AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL INTERACT WITH PERSISTENT
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME MORE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTERWARDS
...ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  77  87  78 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          87  77  88  76 /  20  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            90  77  90  76 /  20  10  10  20
MCALLEN              91  77  92  77 /  20  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  76  93  76 /  20  20  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  76  82  78 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...SCHOLL-55
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58



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