Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 061528
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1128 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA TODAY AND REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:30 AM UPDATE...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE
MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. MODIFIED CLOUD COVER JUST
A BIT TO EXTEND CLOUDS EAST. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS
HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
60S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT`LL BE BREEZY
AGAIN AS WELL, AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 20S
MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW.

A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAST-MOVING FLOW ALOFT LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE, CURRENT THINKING IS WE WON`T SEE MUCH MORE THAN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD NW FLOW ALF WILL CONT ACROSS THE FA THU INTO THU NGT AS
SLOWLY BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LKS SLOWLY
APCHS NEW ENG. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC WARM FRONT TO APCH THE FA BY
LATER THU...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE OPEN N ATLC JUST
E OF THE CAN MARITIMES WILL PUT THE BREAKS ON THIS WARM FRONT BY
FRI...WITH THE FRONT THEN MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS NE THRU THE FA
FRI NGT INTO SAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE REACHES MAX AMPLITUDE SAT AND
THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROF MOVES FURTHER E INTO THE OPEN ATLC.

AFT A FAIR AND ANOTHER VERY DRY DAY THU...WHICH STILL MAY FEATURE
SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS...THE IMPLICATION OF THIS DEVELOPING
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE INCREASING CLDNSS TO THE REGION THU NGT
INTO FRI...WITH THE BEST CHC OF OVRRNG LIKE SHWRS ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA WHICH WILL BE JUST N OF THE 925-850MB WARM FRONT ALF.
THESE SHWRS CONT INTO FRI NGT...MSLY ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA AS
THE WARM FRONT MAKES BETTER PROGRESS NWRD THRU THE FA.

BOTH THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN
SHWRS SAT MORN WITH THE WARM FRONT CLRG THE NRN CROWN OF ME...THEN
INCREASING CHCS TO PERHAPS LIKELY CATEGORY LATER SAT AFTN INTO EVE
SPCLY ACROSS THE N AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK SWRD AS A
COLD FRONT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK S/WV ALF AND ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRES TRACKING W TO E THRU QB PROV JUST N OF THE FA. A
LITTLE ERLY TO SAY WITH ANY DEFINITIVENESS IN OUR FCST GRIDS
ATTM...BUT WITH SFC DWPTS XPCTD TO POTENTIALLY RISE AT LEAST INTO
THE 50S...WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDER WITH SHWRS
LATER SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVE.

TEMPS...PARTICULARLY HI TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
CONT TO SHOW A LARGE SSW TO NNE HI TEMP GRAD ON THU...WITH A
LESSER GRAD AND COOLER HI TEMPS ON FRI WITH THE WARM FRONT NEARLY
STALLED JUST SW OF OUR FA...FOLLOWED BY WARMER HI TEMPS ON SAT. HI
TEMPS ACROSS THE N SAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE...WITH POTENTIAL OF
WELL IN THE 70S IF THERE IS SOME SUNSHINE...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
OF THE NRN MOST PSN OF THE WARM FRONT...WE WILL WAIT FOR BETTER
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSENSUS BEFORE COMMITTING WITH HIGHER TEMPS
ACROSS THE N SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN HOW QUICKLY A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES
NNW TO SSE ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER. IF THE
ECMWF TMG IS CORRECT...HI TEMPS ACROSS ALL OF THE FA SUN COULD BE
SIG HIGHER...SPCLY ACROSS E CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF
THE FA. THE BLEND OF THE MODELS BRINGS SHWR POPS TO THE REGION
SAT NGT INTO SUN...WHICH WE CAP AT THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA OVR THESE
TWO PDS.

AFTWRDS...THE 00Z GFS ACTUALLY DRIES MOST OF THE FA OUT BY MON AS
THE SRN PTN OF A DRIER/COOLER CAN AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHERHAND...STALLS THE FRONT NEAR THE
DOWNEAST COAST BY MON MORN AND THEN ALLOWS WEAK SFC LOW(S) TO
MOVE ALG THIS FRONT LATER DURG THE DAY MON. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW
ANOTHER...MORE SIG WV OF SFC LOW PRES AFFECTING ALL OF THE FA
TUE WITH MORE GENERAL RNFL AS A STRONGER S/WV TROF MOVES ENE
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST ON TUE. UTILIZING THE SUPER
BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE RESULTS IN CHC SHWR POPS FOR MSLY E CNTRL
AND DOWNEAST AREAS ON MON/MON NGT AND ALL OF THE REGION FOR TUE.
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER...SPCLY IF THE GFS MODEL IS
THE MORE CORRECT SOLUTION...BUT COULD STILL BE ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES...XCPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN
CLGS AND PERHAPS VSBYS SPCLY NRN TAF SITES FRI THRU SAT MORN...
THEN ALL TAF SITES SAT NGT INTO SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AS
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND SEAS MSLY REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA...
BUT WV HTS COULD GET CLOSE TO 5 FT OVR OUTER MZS SAT NGT INTO SUN
MORN WITH A WEAK TO MDT SW WIND FETCH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WENT
WITH OR A LITTLE BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THIS PTN
OF THE FCST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 15% TO 25% EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD
MIXING TO 700 MB COMBINED WITH 40+ KT JET WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. HAVE NOTED
THAT SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO THIS AND COLLABORATION WITH GYX AND THE
MAINE FOREST SERVICE, HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.