Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 251154
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
654 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...COMPLEX MIX OF VFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR MIX THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH ALL TERMINALS AT VFR BY THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP...REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR AT
LRD/ALI/CRP...AND IFR OVER VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AS
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACK FURTHER EAST THEY MAY CLIP ACROSS THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR GOLIAD AND VICTORIA COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM CDT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

A DRY LINE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL TEXAS WILL APPROACH
THE REGION TODAY...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS LINE TODAY. AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...POPS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DRY LINE RETREATS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME MID/UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN OVER
FOUR CORNERS/NORTHERN MEXICO...EJECTING IMPULSES OUT FROM MEXICO
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AGAIN. COULD SEE SOME MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EASTWARD. ANTICIPATE THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THIS TIME THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO VERY WARM ACROSS AREAS BEHIND THE DRY
LINE TODAY AND TOMORROW. LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE (THOUGH NOT AS
HIGH AS SOME MODELS WERE SHOWING) OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY MAY HIT THE MID 90S WEST...BUT KEEP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MONDAY. DRYLINE THAT PUNCHED EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RETREAT WESTWARD SUNDAY EVENING BUT
EXPECT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE AS WARM AND DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF
THE AREA IN THE EVENING ALSO. WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATER ON MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW STILL
EXPECTED WITH SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF WATERS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  72  87  73  84  /  30  10  30  20  30
VICTORIA          86  71  85  72  83  /  30  10  30  30  40
LAREDO            91  74  96  71  90  /  20  10  10  30  10
ALICE             90  72  92  72  87  /  20  10  30  20  30
ROCKPORT          80  73  80  74  80  /  30  10  30  20  40
COTULLA           89  68  94  67  88  /  20  10  20  30  10
KINGSVILLE        88  74  91  73  87  /  20  10  20  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  74  81  74  81  /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.