Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 012008
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL TURN MUCH WARMER AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING...ALBEIT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM AND
RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG IT...BRINGING RAIN THEN PERHAPS A CHANGEOVER
TO WET SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST INTO PA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A
STREAMER OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE IS
PRODUCING MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL
MTNS...DIMINISHING THE OTHERWISE SUNNY DAY THAT IS ONGOING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS.

CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH UNDER THE HIGH CENTER AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH.

WEATHER SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH ZERO POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE VA/NC COAST ON THURSDAY.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR A LIGHT S-SW WIND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE/THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIOR TO THAT...WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S /NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA/.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN OUT OF THE GOMEX WILL WILL LEAD TO A
RATHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATE THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WILL INTERSECT THIS DEEP MOISTURE/PLUME
OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS FLOWING NORTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER PA ON FRIDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRESSING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LKS TOWARD THE
COAST PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON TWO FRONTAL WAVES RIDING NEWD
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE SECOND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INTO A
SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE NRN
MID ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS.

A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVES. A MULTI-
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE BLEND OF QPF AMOUNTS WITH LOCAL BIAS CORRECTION
RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 1-2 INCH TOTALS OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE CWA. THESE AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING AND WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAFL TARGETING WRN/SWRN PA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS
WHILE LIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEFORMATION
ZONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NW PA/WRN NY INTO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW OVER THE NW MTNS AS PCPN
TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO SNOW...AND HAVE UPDATED THE HWO TO
REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL LEAD TO AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND BRISK START TO THE EASTER
WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...TRENDING WARMING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE MOST
PART WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL WET PERIOD AROUND 7-8 APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST INTO PA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A
STREAMER OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE ON NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE IS
PRODUCING VFR BKN-OVC CIGS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL
MTNS AIRFIELDS...DIMINISHING THE OTHERWISE SUNNY DAY THAT IS
GOING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT EARLY EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH UNDER THE
HIGH CENTER AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH. VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

THU MORNING...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA.

THU PM-FRI...LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. GUSTY SW WIND DEVELOPING.

SAT...LOW PROB FOR RAIN SHOWERS /MIXED WITH SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/.
REDUCTIONS POSS MAINLY NORTHERN MTNS.

SUN...MAINLY VFR. FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

MON..POSSIBLE AREA WIDE REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS IN PCPN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GARTNER


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