Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032123
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
322 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER THREE DAYS OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...THE BORDERLAND WILL SEE
A COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN U.S.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...ALLOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS DECREASING TUESDAY...THOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF EL PASO. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ENTERING A COOLER PHASE OF WEATHER THOUGH NOT MUCH
WETTER. WV IMAGERY SHOWING DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE NOW OFF TO OUR
EAST AS LARGE DRY SLOT WITH PW`S OF AROUND .4 TO .6 INCHES MOVES
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER IMAGERY DOES APPEAR TO SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS THE BAJA TO FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 130 KT JET. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS THE CWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CU GROWTH WITH
NICE AMOUNT OF TCU/CB. LIGHTNING LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY
DEMING WEST AND ALSO OVER HUDSPETH CO AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE
ISOLATED TSTMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY...PERHAPS BECOMING SCATTERED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HRRR SHOWING DCAPES OF 700-900 J/KG...COMBINED WITH
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 50-55 DEG...WILL GIVE SOME WIND GUST
POTENTIAL OF 45 TO 55 MPH NEAR ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT. LARGE
DEPRESSIONS SHOULD LIMIT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO QUITE MODEST
TOTALS.

TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW WHAT LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS...TO
BEGIN SCOURING OUT FROM THE WEST AS UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH NEW
MEXICO. LEFT LOW POPS IN FAR EAST IN CASE MOISTURE REMAINS INTO
HEATING PERIOD. FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ONSHORE OF THE WEST COAST.
PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE WARM...BUT MODELS NEVER REALLY
DEVELOP STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGHING TO DEVELOP WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SO HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
NICE DAYS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND YET NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
VFR CONDS THRU PD. P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN150-200 WITH ISOLD TO SCT
VRB25G40KT -TSRA BKN070-090 THRU 04Z AND AGAIN AFT 18Z. GENERALLY W
TO SW WINDS UNDER 12KTS THRU 20Z...THEN INCREASING TO 12-18G25KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY LIGHTNING
POSSIBLE AS TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD WILL BE AROUND 50 DEGREES INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AND AROUND 45 DEGREES ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO START
TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL STAY AT OR BELOW
15 PERCENT FOR MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 62  86  60  82  58 /  10  10  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           57  83  54  82  54 /  20  10  40   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  83  51  81  50 /  10  10  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              56  83  54  81  53 /  10  20  30   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              45  63  42  60  40 /  20  50  50  30   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  81  50  79  50 /  10  20  20  10   0
SILVER CITY             48  75  46  72  45 /  10  20  30  20   0
DEMING                  51  83  48  81  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               52  81  48  80  48 /  10  20  20  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      61  85  60  82  59 /  10  10  20   0   0
DELL CITY               55  85  54  81  52 /  20  20  40  20   0
FORT HANCOCK            58  87  56  83  55 /  20  10  30   0   0
LOMA LINDA              58  81  58  79  56 /  10  10  30   0   0
FABENS                  57  86  55  82  54 /  10  10  30   0   0
SANTA TERESA            57  85  55  82  54 /  10  10  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          60  82  58  81  57 /  10  20  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  83  50  81  48 /  10  20  20   0   0
HATCH                   53  83  50  82  49 /  10  20  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                55  81  54  81  53 /  10  10  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               59  84  57  82  57 /  10  20  30   0   0
MAYHILL                 51  72  48  70  46 /  20  50  50  30   0
MESCALERO               49  72  45  70  43 /  20  50  50  30   0
TIMBERON                50  71  47  69  45 /  20  50  50  20   0
WINSTON                 44  71  44  73  41 /  20  30  40  30   0
HILLSBORO               50  80  48  79  46 /  10  20  20  20   0
SPACEPORT               50  82  48  81  48 /  10  20  30   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  74  44  71  42 /  10  30  30  30   0
HURLEY                  47  76  47  75  44 /  10  10  20  20   0
CLIFF                   46  80  42  78  42 /  10  20  20  30   0
MULE CREEK              42  78  39  75  39 /  20  20  20  30   0
FAYWOOD                 49  77  47  76  46 /  10  10  20  20   0
ANIMAS                  51  80  48  81  49 /  10  20  20   0   0
HACHITA                 49  81  47  81  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  80  46  80  48 /  10  10  20   0   0
CLOVERDALE              48  78  47  77  47 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/GRZYWACZ








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