Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 020510
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1210 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY ENCOMPASSING THE I-35 TAF SITES WITH IFR NOW
BEING REPORTED AT KSAT. IFR SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REST
OF THE I-35 SITES BY 9Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KDRT AROUND
10Z. CEILINGS AT ALL SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH VFR ONCE AGAIN
PREVAILING AROUND MID-DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...MAINLY BETWEEN 8-12 KNOTS.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE REDUCED OUTSIDE OF
ONGOING ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
WITH MINIMAL CHANGES. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED
DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW. /ALLEN/

DISCUSSION...DECENT CLOUD CLEARING OCCURRED BY MID AFTERNOON AND
ALLOWED FOR LARGE AMOUNTS OF INSOLATION TO AID IN SBCAPE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR 2000 J/KG. THIS GROWING INSTABILITY WAS ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BECAME STRONG WITH 30-40 MPH WINDS AND SMALL TO NEARLY QUARTER
SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN WILSON COUNTY. IN ADDITION...SOME PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED WITH THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS. INSTABILITY
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND REMAINING STORM
STRENGTH WITH FOLLOW SUIT. SHOWERS SHOULD NOT MAKE IT INTO AUSTIN
AND FIZZLE OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. REGION SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ANY
WEATHER BY MIDNIGHT WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

AVIATION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
LIGHTNING DATA...WE/LL MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA AT KSSF
UNTIL 01Z. ELSEWHERE...ACTIVITY LOOKS TOO SPARSE FOR A MENTION AT
THIS TIME. CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG I-35 BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE ONSET AROUND 08Z AT KDRT. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
INTACT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH VFR SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (NSSL WRF AND TEXAS TECH WRF) HAVE BOTH
BEEN SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG A LEAKEY TO JUNCTION TO MASON LINE. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY OF THIS ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE
LLANO...BURNET...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTY AT THE TAIL END OF A
MARGINAL RISK. THE NAM SHOWS 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR OR MORE ACROSS THE AREA SO IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE OF THESE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
INTO A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING. THAT SAID THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS VERY SMALL...THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE STATE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A CLOUDY AND MILD MORNING
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AREAS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
90S DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE. CLOUDS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE
MORE MILD NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF FRIDAYS COLD
FRONT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THE NAME AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF CAPE AND
DECENT SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70 WILL MEAN THAT ANY STORMS
THAT INITIATE COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

DESPITE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. ANOTHER
DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND A FEW STORMS COMES ON SUNDAY MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35. THE MOISTURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AN ADDED BENEFIT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE A
COOL DOWN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S
WITH LOW 70S EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THIS IS 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 50 WITH SOME UPPER
40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY MORNING.

TREADWAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  80  51  69  54 /  -   30  20  -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  79  51  68  53 /  10  30  20  -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  81  53  69  55 /  -   30  30  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  80  49  67  52 /  -   30  10  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  57  67  56 /   0  10  20  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  81  49  67  52 /   0  30  20  -   30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  83  54  68  54 /  -   20  30  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  79  52  69  54 /  -   30  30  10  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  79  54  69  56 /  -   30  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  82  54  68  56 /  -   30  30  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           67  82  55  69  56 /  -   20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05


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