Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 031154
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
754 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING A
WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS DO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE WEAK WAVE...AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE THERE IS
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
AREA OF SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN AND
HAVE TRIMMED THE AREA A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE AN AREA
OF PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL GA...MAINLY MACON AND
MILLEDGEVILLE AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO FLIRT WITH 2-5 MILES
THROUGH 8-9AM. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND SEE NO REASON
TO DISAGREE.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA GIVING US A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE WEEK. MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED WITH THESE WAVES BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR EACH
WEEKDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OFF SHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE DEPENDS ON THE FINAL LOCATION OF THE LOW....SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTH AND
NORTHEAST GA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS AT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SW 3-7KTS...BECOMING CALM TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00-02Z...WITH LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED IN
ATL BY 12Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  56  82  57 /   0   5  10   5
ATLANTA         80  58  80  59 /   0   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     74  51  77  52 /   5   5  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    81  55  81  56 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  58  85  59 /   0   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     77  57  81  58 /   5   0  10   5
MACON           83  55  83  56 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            82  54  84  55 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  81  55 /   0   0   5  10
VIDALIA         82  58  83  60 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...ATWELL


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