Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AS THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR
TODAY...LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WITH ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL. ON TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WARM UP A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LIGHT WINDS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER SPREADS WEST ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM...THOUGH BETTER CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA MIDWEEK WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS AT TIMES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS CURRENTLY LOOK TOO LOW FOR CONVECTION...SO WE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS NE AT 10-20 KTS. SCT-BKN CIGS AOA 12KFT MSL TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER APACHE COUNTY
AND THE MOGOLLON RIM. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW TO KEEP MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OVER APACHE COUNTY AND THE
MOGOLLON RIM WHERE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND TO START
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WHILE WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...STRONG AND GUSTY 20 FOOT WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









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