Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 051436
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1035 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
BETWEEN 70 RAIN COOLED DEGREES FROM GRASSY KEY TO OCEAN REEF...AND
IN THE MID 70S ELSEWHERE. LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLORIDA
BAY TO BEYOND 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. ALSO...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE INCREASE ON THE  WATERS BEYOND 20 TO 40 NM
SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS RESPECTIVELY. SURFACE WISE...A
TROUGH LOW PRESSURE IS DRAPED FROM THE OUTER STRAITS INTO THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...WINDS ARE MOSTLY
NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 15 KNOTS BUT WITH 17 KNOTS AT SMITH SHOAL
LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...THE AXIS OF A DEEP...NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. MEANWHILE...A SPLINTERED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
(SURFACE-850 MB) EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL MIGRATE NORTHWESTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL LIE OVER THE BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD...MODEST LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...UPGLIDE PRIMARILY BETWEEN
850 AND 700 MB WITH WEAK ASCENT ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE FROM THE
MIDDLE KEYS EASTWARD. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A MODERATE
EAST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 DEGREES. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO UPDATE THE PUBLIC ZONE
FORECAST TO LOWER POPS FOR AT LEAST THE LOWER KEYS AND MAINTAIN
LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE SLACKENED APPRECIABLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PERSISTING ON MOST OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE AND OUT TO
BEYOND DRY TORTUGAS. ON THESE WATERS...AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE
WILL REPLACE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND NEAR 15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE CHANGED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
REST OF TODAY...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS...BUT A BETTER CHANCE OF
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS EXISTS AT MARATHON THRU ABOUT 17 OR 18Z...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AT KEY WEST. AFTER 18Z...SHORT PERIOD MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND OR VIS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO IMPACT EITHER OR BOTH
TERMINALS...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
ATTM SO AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE EASTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS...OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...IN 2004...A PERSISTENT CLOUD LINE PRODUCED NUMEROUS
FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS JUST WEST OF KEY WEST FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................DAF
DATA ACQUISITION.....................EV

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