Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 280517
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1217 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE
AN INVERTED TROUGH PERSISTS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO WESTERN S
DAKOTA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA HAVE ALLOWED SOME DECENT WARMING AND TEMPS IN THE
60S ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 30S. SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MODELS SHOWING
GOOD MOISTURE IN A NARROW MID LAYER AND EXPECT A BAND OF CLOUDS TO
SLOWLY PUSH INTO NWRN/NRN NEB OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOWS AROUND 40.

TOMORROW THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE CWA. AS
TEMPS WARM THE STEEP LAPSE RATE INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE A BAND OF
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP. MODELS FAVOR NARROW BAND WITH GOOD
MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH STEEP LAPSE RATE FROM ABOUT 800 MB TO 700
MB. VERY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER SO THINKING ACTIVITY WILL BE
SPRINKLE OR VIRGA. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE BAND AND ALLOW FOR SOME
SUN...HELPING WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER WRN NEBR TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AT THIS TIME WILL EXTEND FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WHILE AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND FLATTEN OUT TO NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES IN. AN ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IN THE NRN STREAM
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
71 TO 75 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS
FCST THEN FROM 75 TO 82 FOR THURSDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL AS H5 GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RANGE NEAR 5700
METERS. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
FCST TO COOL MONDAY DOWN TO AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DIFFER IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S AT TIMES...WHICH HAS BEEN RARE TO SEE
FOR MUCH OF THE SPRING SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORIES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER






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