Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 051745
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...A BAND OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTWARD
BOUND INVERTED TROF EXTENDS FROM BPT AND LCH TO THE ACADIANA AREA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THIS BAND AT LFT AND ARA.
DESPITE GUIDANCE, WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE WINDS AT LFT BASED ON
RECENT SURFACE REPORTS THERE. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AT THE ARA
TERMINAL BUT WENT AHEAD AND REISSUED THE TAF WITH GUSTY WINDS.
WHEN GROUND TRUTH ON LIGHTER WIND OBS AT ARA IS RECEIVED, WILL
ALSO OPT TO DROP THOSE WINDS AS WELL. SURFACE REPORT OUTAGE AT ARA
CONTINUES.

CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS AS MIXING HAS BROUGHT
SOME DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO
REDEVELOP LATER TNITE WITH LIGHT FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT AEX AND ARA.

SWEENEY


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TARGET THIS MORNING. BREEZY AND WARM WITH
SMALL RAIN CHANCES TAPERED FROM WEST TO EAST. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
WIND/WINDGUST GRIDS TO NUDGE THEM UP OVER INLAND AREAS MORE IN
LINE WITH CURRENT OBS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS NOTED IN SE TX AND EXTREME OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
TO HOLD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS TO PICK UP AROUND 15Z AND
WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS FAIRLY MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST RIDGING
ACROSS THE GULF...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A SE FLOW. WITHIN THE
SE FLOW...AN EASTERLY WAVE...OR INVERTED TROF AXIS...EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W GULF INTO SE TX/SW LA THIS MORNING. ISO SHRA CONTINUES
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX WITH THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF AXIS. EAST OF THE AXIS...SE WINDS CONTINUE TO KICK UP AROUND
20 KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AND 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
LAKES/BAYS...SEE MARINE FOR FLAGS. ELEVATED SE WINDS 10-15 MPH
COMMON ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...CLOSER TO 15-20 MPH NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60/LOWER 70S COMMON THIS
MORNING...WITH DEWPTS NOT FAR BEHIND.

THIS EASTERLY WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE W GULF/E TX
TODAY...SLOWING AS IT MERGES WITH A LARGER SFC TROF ACROSS C TX N
ACROSS OK. 40-50% POPS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SE TX TODAY WHERE
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE & AFTERNOON HEATING. FURTHER
E...~30-40% FOR SW LA...AND AROUND 20% OR LESS FOR C AND SC LA.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE REGION...POPS WILL DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH
CAN`T RULE OUT AT LEAST 20% FOR AFTERNOON POPCORN DEVELOPMENT FOR
WED AND THU AFTERNOON. THE WX PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH
THIS WEEK EITHER...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE EASTERN GULF WITH A DOMINATE SE FLOW FOR OUR REGION. THE BEST
POPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
OVER C AND N TX INTO OK.

BY LATE SAT INTO SUN...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAKDOWN AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
TROF WILL OPEN SOMEWHAT...BUT THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER
OLD MEXICO AND THE GULF STATES BY MON...WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES
INCREASING POPS FOR MON AND TUE. WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGES
EXPECTED...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT BUT WARMER
THAN NORMAL...LOWS IN THE 60S/NEAR 70 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
80S.

DML

MARINE...
SE WINDS ~20 KTS AND SEAS 3-7 FT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BEHIND AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. SCA REMAINS FOR ALL 0-60 NM MARINE
ZONES...WITH SCEC FOR LAKES/BAY THRU 4 AM WED. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF NEAR THE WAVE AXIS TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  63  83  65 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  81  67  82  69 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  82  65  83  66 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  81  69  82  70 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$


AVIATION...11



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