Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 040129
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
BERMUDA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY IN THE AREA DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...1023MB MSLP ALONG THE NC COAST WITH A SOUTH FLOW
IMPLYING HIGHER PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST...APPROACHING BERMUDA MONDAY. A TROUGH IS OVER THE NRN
GREAT PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC.

MOSTLY CLEAR (JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS) TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SWLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH (IF ANY). MINS AROUND 50F INLAND WITH AN INVERSION
FOR RIDGES AND LOW 60S NEARSHORE/URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AND MON WL BE THE WARMEST DAY THE AREA HAS XPRNCD SINCE LAST SEPT
(SEE CLIMATE SXN BLO). HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH THE LM80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WANDERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF DECAYING
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...SO SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THE JET/SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...SO SURFACE FRONTAL AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS
OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED UNLESS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM AND FINDS ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY EVENING /LOW PROBABILITY/.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHUT OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE CYCLE REPEATS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS THE FRONT
DROPS THROUGH.

COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA ON WED...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURS. COLD FRONT THEN LIFTS NE
AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND FRONT. UPSLOPING FACTOR FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT FOR
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF
THE SE COAST... AND DEPENDING ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...IT COULD BRING PRECIP
TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUN ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD THROUGH TUES AM. LIGHT SWLY FLOW TONIGHT (OR CALM)
AND SLY/SWLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PSBL BRIEF/SPOTTY SUB-VFR TUE AFT- EVE AND AGAIN WED AFT-EVE IN
SCTD SHWR/ISO TSTM. SWLY FLOW AOB 10 KT BECOME NLY WED AS FRONT
DROPS THROUGH.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...
WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING MONDAY AS SLY
CHANNELING OCCURS. SCA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR LARGE AREAS OF MD PORTION OF BAY...WHERE CHANNELING USUALLY
OCCURS.

SCA GUSTS LIKELY CONTINUE TUESDAY BEFORE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OVER
THE AREA WEAKENING THE GRADIENT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL THURS AND FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/DFH/IMR


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