Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 050746
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
346 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY
AND LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SFC AND UPR RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
AREA TODAY LEADING TO REPEAT OF FAIR WX FROM MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
A COUPLE OF DEGS WARMER. CU/SCU EXPECTED INLAND WITH PEAK
HEATING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTN AS SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY 82-85 INLAND AND MID TO UPR 70S
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. MIN TEMPS FROM AROUND 50 INLAND SW TO
AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...THEN
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SE CONUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO LOWER 60S WED NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE REMAIN IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS
WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERAL DRIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SETTING
UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWEST DRIFT OF THE LOW
AROUND THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK...
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUE TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND WPC...KEEPING PREVAILING WINDS NE/E GENERALLY 10-20 KTS ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE LOW SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH/OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE 00Z RUN
SEEMS TO BE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS WITH RESPECT
TO THE TRACK. CONTINUE INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY THU WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST. AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS COULD BE EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE
HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE CLOSER TO THE EASTERN
NC COAST COULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE LOW PRES AREA POSSIBLY STILL IN THE VCNTY. WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY VALUES AND STILL HIGH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL SUMMERY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER PRODUCING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH BASED CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY DURING
DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE FOG OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU
THROUGH SAT WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS WATERS FROM
OFFSHORE WITH LEE TROF INLAND AND N OF AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SW WIND AROUND 10 KT OVER NRN WATERS
WHILE SRN WATERS SEE SE-S WINDS 5-10 KT. SEAS PERSISTING MAINLY
2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...THE FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO DEPEND
ON THE LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCES REMAINS
BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD. CONTINUE TO RELY ON
CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND MODEL BLENDS TO FORECAST
WINDS AND SEAS WED THROUGH SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LOW
NEAR THE SE COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...KEEPING IT
SOUTH OF THE NC WATERS...THOUGH LINGERING OFF THE SE COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO FCST S/E WINDS 10-15 KT WED...BECOMING
E/NE 10-20KT THU...THEN E/SE FRI AND SAT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH HAVE
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5
FEET NORTH...THU INTO FRI WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING LOW...THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD


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