Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 060834
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WEATHER MAPS SHOW A COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS MORNING.
TO THE EAST...HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS WAS POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE WEST...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM COLORADO TO OKLAHOMA
WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE (PWAT VALUES AVERAGING ~1 INCH TODAY)...THE
PASSAGE OF A SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE ENOUGH...ALONG WITH
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES => BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 C/KM TO HELP
INITIATE A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE COAST. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT FORECASTERS NOTE IN THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
IS THAT THE GFS/NAM FAVOR MAINTAINING A CAPPING MID LEVEL INVERSION
THROUGH THE DAY. CONSIDERING THIS...WILL KEEP COVERAGE ONLY ISOLATED.
A LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON MORE
OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. NIGHTTIME LOWS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 60S COAST.

RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. /10

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE RIDGING PERSISTS OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WHILE A SURFACE LOW/UPPER LOW...LIKELY WITH WARM
CORE CHARACTERISTICS...LINGERS OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
A SURFACE RIDGE OTHERWISE EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY NEAR THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT IS
ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
SYSTEM OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST...THEN LOOKS TO IMPACT MORE OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL DEFINED CAP NEAR 700
MB...BUT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAY SEE A
STORM OR TWO DEVELOP EACH DAY. THAT SAID...COVERAGE IS TOO LIMITED AT
THIS TIME TO SUPPORT MENTION OF POPS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 INLAND TO MID 80S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
/29

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE REGION MEANWHILE BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE
PLAINS...IN TURN ALLOWING FOR DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SUBSIDENCE COMING TO AN END...WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY. A
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS TROF WILL BRING A WEAK
TRAILING FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY AND HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 OVER INLAND AREAS WITH MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND TO MID/UPPER
60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN HOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND. A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SEAS RANGING 2 TO 4
FEET THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND. NO RAIN
FORECAST. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. DAYTIME CU FORECAST TO
FORM...WITH BASES LOOKING TO RANGE FROM 3-5 KFT. MAYBE A FEW TSRA IN
THE VCTY OF MOB/BFM BETWEEN 06.19-22Z. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
EARLY BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON 5 TO 10 KTS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  85  63  87 /  20  05  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   82  65  85  66  85 /  05  05  05  05  05
DESTIN      81  68  83  67  83 /  10  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   85  59  87  58  88 /  10  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  85  60  86  62  88 /  20  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      85  60  87  59  87 /  10  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   87  59  88  58  90 /  20  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


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