Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 252310
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM DEAL WITH CLOUD AMOUNTS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IS IN PLACE. CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB
THAT WAS OVER NERN KS AT 12Z CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO IL. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT EXTENDED FROM WRN KS AND ERN CO UP INTO
THE DAKOTAS. A TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN WA STATE
DOWN INTO CA WITH 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 60 METERS. A 145 KT
JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF WA AND OR (DIGGING
SWD) AT 12Z THIS MORNING.

SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING TONIGHT
AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 KTS BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DROP TO UNDER
10 MPH. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED PCPN AMOUNTS OF OVER .50 INCHES
WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG. AT THIS TIME...WILL MAINLY JUST
MENTION PATCHY FOG. THIS FOR COULD LINGER INTO MID MORNING
SUNDAY.

AFTER THAT...CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ALOFT. THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL HELP FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 18Z SUNDAY. THAT FEATURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS OK AND/OR NRN TX THROUGH TUESDAY. PCPN WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM MONDAY...THEN FOR PARTS OF KS
AND SRN MO THRU TUESDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM DOES DROP INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY (AND ECMWF HAS
BEEN HINTING AT LIGHT PCPN) BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS AT 14
PERCENT OR LESS.

HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE SUNDAY (LOWER/MID 60S) BUT
REACH NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY. THE 12Z ECMWF DID BRING IN A BIT
OF LIGHT PCPN BY FRIDAY...BUT THE 12Z GFS WAS SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND WAS DRY...SO LEFT MENTION OF ANY PCPN OUT FOR FRIDAY. 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HINT AND SOME PCPN SATURDAY. THE TIMING AND
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT CLEAR SO WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY AND ADJUST
WITH LATER FORECASTS IF NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS PERIOD
WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS. HIGHS TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY...REACHING
75 TO 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT AND COULD BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN


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