Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 190306 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1006 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO INCREASE SHWR/TSTM CHANCES
FROM SW TO NE REST OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
SKY...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS ALSO. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP AROUND
06Z...DROPPING TO IFR AND SOME LIFR WITH POCKETS OF +SHRA BY 11Z.
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE ARA BY 18Z...WITH
IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT REGIONAL
SFC OBS...SATELLITE...AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST IN
SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS MAINTAINING ISO SHWRS/TSTMS THRU AT
LEAST THE MID EVENING HRS. BULK OF SHWR/TSTMS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FROM
THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THEIR TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. HRRR IS FORECASTING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO KENTUCKY AND ANOTHER
WAVE OF PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM
THIS PAST WEEK`S RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE CREEKS AND STREAMS RISE
PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WATCH FOR MINOR
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE STORMS AROUND...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE TONIGHT.

BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA. LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY
INHIBIT INSTABILITY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ENOUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW
70S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THIS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE MID-STATE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WHICH STRENGTHEN OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HEAD NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN ON TUESDAY
AND GIVES US A MUCH NEEDED DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERS THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AREA. COULD SEE A BREAK ON FRIDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PUSHES
SOUTH...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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