Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 281024
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
624 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES EACH DAY. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER
LOW. ONCE AGAIN AS WE HAVE SEEN...A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT FOR ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A FEW MORE CLOUDS MAY BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...CLOSER TO THE LOW.

WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CLOSED LOW TO THE EAST FINALLY LOOKS TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THESE OVERALL FEATURES.

AT THE SURFACE...NW FLOW PERSISTS AS AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL GIVE WAY TO
A TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY PER NCEP AND GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

NW WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT A
RANGE OF TEMPS...WITH LOWS AROUND 50 IN NYC...WITH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. MOS BLEND LOOKS
REASONABLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE 60S...AND APPROACH OR EXCEED
70...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE WATER.

NW FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST AND
TRACKS TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOW FROM TRACKING TOO FAR TO THE
NORTH AS IT TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTH OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME AS SOME WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION COULD IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
AND ONSHORE FLOW...CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S ON THURSDAY AND IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. WITH RISING HEIGHTS...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING
BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WEAK COLD FRONT THEN TRIES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAINLY EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WITH WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASING...TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP THROUGH THE 60S AND BACK INTO THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVING FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...RIGHT
OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC MUCH OF THE TIME. HIGHER WIND SPEEDS OF
10-20 KT INITIALLY...GUSTING MORE FREQUENTLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR
25 KT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

THE GUSTS OVERALL CONTAIN THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FORECAST...AS THE TIMING OBSERVED COULD VARY A FEW HOURS FROM
FORECAST.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2
HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2
HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2
HOURS FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2
HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2
HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND GUSTS COULD PEAK A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST TODAY. THE START/END TIME OF GUSTS COULD VARY +/- 1 TO 2
HOURS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
SHRA. NE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY SHRA. NE-N
WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NW FLOW CONTINUES AS LOW PRESSURE WOBBLES WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
WATERS. EXPECT NEARSHORE GUSTS TO REACH 25 KTS THIS MORNING...SO
WILL POST SCA PER SURROUNDING OFFICE COLLABORATION. OVER THE OPEN
WATERS AWAY FROM LAND...COOLER TEMPS SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM
GUSTING TO 25 KTS.

WINDS LOOK TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WATERS.

A WIND SHIFT IN SPOTS IS FORECAST AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES WED AFTERNOON.

SEAS REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG
WITH SCA LEVEL WINDS/WAVES LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND SCA
WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS. GRADIENT SLACKENS FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT LINGERING SWELLS WILL KEEP OCEAN SEAS ABOVE SCA LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THIS MORNING...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/PW
FIRE WEATHER...PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW


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