Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 062139
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
739 AM CHST THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS
EAST WINDS OF 8 TO 14 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 THOUSAND FEET OF
THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MARIANAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT...ALL WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WHICH HAS NOW FORMED IN
POHNPEI STATE. IT IS EXPECTED TO HEAD IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF
THE MARIANAS...STAY TUNED FOR SPECIFICS.

SEA HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY...
THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE. THEY SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FEET
SUNDAY...AND COULD EXCEED 10 FEET ON MONDAY IF 07W COMES SOMEWHAT
CLOSE.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TYPHOON NOUL (06W) CONTINUES TO HEAD AWAY FROM YAP AND INTO OPEN
OCEAN...AT LEAST UNTIL A POSSIBLE ENCOUNTER WITH THE PHILIPPINES
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS NEWLY FORMED IN POHNPEI STATE. IS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI NEAR 4N159E. IT WILL HEAD NORTHEAST FOR
A BIT BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN PUT OUT FOR
MOKIL...PINGELAP AND SAPWUAFIK. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER FOR POHNPEI AND PAKIN. ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
THREATENED LATER INCLUDE FANANU IN CHUUK STATE AND THE MARIANAS.
ARRIVAL TIME COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 07W PROVIDES SPECIFIC DETAILS FOR WINDS...SEAS AND
WEATHER AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND NEAR KOSRAE THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE WEATHER WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF
93W AS IT SITS NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH LOCATIONS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS UNTIL
07W BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. WINDS AND SEAS
FORECASTS MAY NEED TWEAKING WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST BASED ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. AT POHNPEI...WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS
WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH A GENERALLY MOIST TRADE-WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION.

FOR MAJURO...A DISTURBANCE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY WESTWARD BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE MARSHALLS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FRESH WINDS
WILL PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH 6 TO 8 FT COMBINED SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS MAINTAINING A
GENERALLY WET PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK...FAIR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATE TRADES. NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 07W WILL REMAIN IN POHNPEI STATE A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE
TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY AS TD 07W NEARS. GUIDANCE KEEPS 07W TO THE NORTH
AS IT PASSES BY...BUT WILL GENERATE STRONGER WINDS AND LARGER SEAS
FOR THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. KEEP A CLOSE WATCH TO FUTURE
FORECASTS AND FOR ISSUANCE OF ANY ADVISORIES FOR SEAS AND SURF.

YAP AND KOROR...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT YAP AND KOROR AS
TY NOUL PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM BOTH LOCATIONS. SEAS AND SURF ARE
SUBSIDING BUT WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR BOTH LOCALES AT LEAST
THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT



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