Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 010928
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
728 PM CHST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTERMOST RAIN BAND OF SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK IS NOW SOUTHWEST
OF GUAM WATERS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE TYPHOON ON LOCAL WEATHER
HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED AND WILL CONTINUE TOWARD ZERO OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 10 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK HAS LEFT THE MARIANAS FORECAST ZONES. SWELL
WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. THE
MARIANAS WILL SLIP BACK INTO A TRADE-WIND PATTERN AS DRY SEASON
RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR A TIME. SEAS WILL DIP BRIEFLY THEN BUILD
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO TRADE WINDS. SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY THE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN STRENGTH TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN A SUPER TYPHOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
IT IS FORECAST TO HEAD IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF LUZON...
HOWEVER IT IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE IT
ARRIVES. THE INFLUENCE OF MAYSAK ON MICRONESIAN AND MARIANAS
WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF KOSRAE NEAR 2N163E THIS
EVENING. SURGING FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD THE NORTH
AND EAST PERIPHERY OF THIS DISTURBANCE...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION NEAR KOSRAE AND MAJURO. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE NEAR
BOTH LOCATIONS THRU TONIGHT AND THEN SPREAD TO POHNPEI THURSDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS WESTWARD. ONCE THE DISTURBANCE HAS
PROGRESSED FARTHER AWAY FROM KOSRAE ON FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGING
SEPARATING IT AND A TRADE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE DATE LINE
MIGHT SQUEEZE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER FOR MAJURO AND
KOSRAE FRIDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND...WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD ARRIVE AT BOTH LOCALES AND COULD ALSO
PROLONG WETNESS NEAR POHNPEI INTO NEXT WEEK.

RESIDUAL TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL ARE GOING TO KEEP HAZARDOUS SURF
ACROSS KOSRAE AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THRU THIS EVENING. THESE WIND
WAVES AND SWELL ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE FURTHER TONIGHT AND ALLOW
SURF TO DROP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS NEAR CHUUK THRU
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH OF
POHNPEI. BOTH THE GFS AND NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING THIS
DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR CHUUK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE TOO FAST AS THE DISTURBANCE IS STILL
PRETTY MUCH DISORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE CARRIED IT AS
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PASSING SOUTH OF CHUUK LAGOON ON SATURDAY.
DID PUT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CHUUK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THE CONVERGING BAND OF CONVECTION TRAINS OVER CHUUK LAGOON.
AFTERWARD...A TRADE DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST WILL PROLONG SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR THE ISLAND INTO NEXT WEEK.

SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK IS PULLING FARTHER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM
YAP THIS EVENING. CONVERGING WEST TO SOUTH WINDS FEEDING INTO MAYSAK
CAN STILL SPARK OFF SOME MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR BOTH KOROR AND YAP THRU THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING...
SUBSIDENCE FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF MAYSAK SHOULD USHER IN
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH PLACES. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
INCREASING TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE FROM THE EAST MIGHT INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

NORTHWEST TO SOUTH SWELL GENERATED BY SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK IS GOING
TO MAINTAIN DANGEROUS SURF ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP
STATES TONIGHT. SURF WILL SUBSIDE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD FALL FURTHER TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT NEAR BOTH
LOCALES THRU THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN



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