Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 271907
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF AREA TONIGHT. DRY TUESDAY.
MOISTURE CREEPS NORTH WEDNESDAY FROM WEAKENING SOUTHERN SYSTEM.
NORTHERN TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
FREEZING LEVELS GENERALLY AROUND 3500-4000 FEET...ANY SHOWER COULD
PRODUCE GRAUPEL. SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDING...ALTHOUGH SOME
LINGERING UPSLOPE MAY CONTINUE FOR A BIT IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN
THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...COULD
EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...GENERALLY ABOVE 3500 FEET.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...SOME CLEARING AND CALM WINDS ACROSS THE
WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE IN. THINKING SOME AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...AND IN
COORDINATION WITH ILN...WILL HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. MORGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ARE IFFY.
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN OCCUR THERE. WILL HAVE
EVENING SHIFT KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND SPLIT FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. OVERALL...EXPECT A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE PERIOD OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD.  SRN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL LOW COMES OUT OF THE DEEP S AND OPENS UP AS IT PASSES S OF THE
AREA WED...THIS AS A LARGE NRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS E OFF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  MEANWHILE...YET ANOTHER NRN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS SWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN DIGS SEWD SW OF
THE AREA AND THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS THU.  THIS KICKS THE SRN
STREAM FEATURE TO THE CAROLINA COAST.

WHILE THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM UPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS WELL S OF THE AREA WED...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD SHOWERS FROM S TO N ON WED...THE
LATE APRIL HEATING ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE INCREASING COVERAGE.
HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH COVERAGE DECREASES WED NT BEFORE THE NEXT NRN
STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE OVERNIGHT WED NT INTO THU...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN MAXIMIZE MIDDAY THU INTO THU AFTERNOON IN THE
LATE APRIL HEATING BENEATH LOW HEIGHTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PASSING
JUST SW OF THE AREA.  WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER N CENTRAL WV ENHANCES
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE E OF
THE OHIO RIVER.

NO MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AND PW VALUES TOO LOW
FOR ANY WATER CONCERNS...KILLING SOME SPRING CLOCK.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
ADJUSTED LOWS UP A BIT WED NT VIA THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV.
H85 TEMPERATURES NEVER GET BELOW 2 OR 3C SO SNOW NOT A CONCERN EVEN
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM MARKS A PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER...EVOLVING
INTO SLIGHT RIDGING BY DAY 7. OVERALL...500MB HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE...SO WILL SEE A WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WHICH COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LOW POPS THAT DO NOT CLIMB HIGHER THAN LOW END CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES ACROSS THE NORTH IN -SHRA FROM A PASSING
DISTURBANCE...PARTICULARLY AT SITES...KPKB..KCKB...AND KEKN. SITES
WILL GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR AFTER 10-14Z.

COULD BE SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AFTER 08Z...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. MAY GET RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT IF SKIES
CLEAR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ066-075-
     083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/26
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





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