Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 070808
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
408 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE WELL DEFINED...NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. AN AREA OF ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ON THE
NORTHWEST/WEST SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION OVER GEORGIA AND EASTERN
ALABAMA WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 5 PERCENT AND KEEP CLOUDS VERY
LIMITED AS WELL. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A
FEW DEGREES AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY...SO HAVE
FAVORED THE HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE VALUES WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LIKE RECENT
EVENINGS...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE COMFORTABLE
RANGE NEAR TO JUST AFTER SUNSET TODAY...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
TRENDS OF THE MODELS FORECASTING SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS
TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS
ON THE LOCAL AREA. A FAIRLY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM THE LOW
TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AGAIN OFF THE
WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES
MOVES EASTWARD. LOCALLY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL THEN WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY] GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT VLD AND POSSIBLY TLH WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL BE
ON THE DRY SIDE TODAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT OVER MANY AREAS...HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
LESS THAN 12 MPH. DEEP MIXING AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE DISPERSION VALUES TO BE HIGH IN SOME AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND RIVERS
RECEDING...THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  59  90  64  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
PANAMA CITY   87  63  83  67  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        87  61  89  65  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALBANY        88  59  87  64  89 /   0   0   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      88  59  88  65  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    87  59  87  63  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  85  63  84  67  86 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...TD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...TD
HYDROLOGY...DVD


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