Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 271739
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.UPDATE...MORNING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY. MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING USING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MORNING MODEL
RUNS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT KHLN/KBZN EARLY TUESDAY...BUT DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WRITE IN TAFS. WILL RECONSIDER ADDING
FOG TO TAFS WITH THE EVENING PACKAGES. NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 535 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015/

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL
KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. ONLY
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, WITH YESTERDAY`S PRECIPITATION, AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOME SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS AND
INTO THE LEWISTOWN AREA, WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM MOSTLY INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
(UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), THEN WARM FURTHER INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S (10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
MORE UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY, BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS AT THIS
TIME, AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST AND
GUSTY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HINDER
DEVELOPMENT. MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE HIGH WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO COOL SOMEWHAT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.  COULSTON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LONG-RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TREASURE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRIER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND COVERAGE SO HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE PLAINS AND CHANCE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  37  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  63  32  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  63  36  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  59  30  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  57  21  68  27 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  60  33  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  64  34  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  60  36  74  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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