Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 190913
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
313 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
ND TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
HAS LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS...STARTING TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY
EASTWARD. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY. KUDX RADAR SHOWS
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS RUSHES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR
WESTERN SD. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 30S ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...40S
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

A MAINLY DRY AND COOL PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CANADA TAKES OVER. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...AS FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP BL MIXING DEVELOP.

FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL...SOME CLEARING
IN THE MORNING...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS BACK AROUND THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY...THOUGH A BIT MILDER OVER WESTERN
AREAS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SD PLAINS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...STRONGEST TOWARD
CENTRAL SD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

DEEP EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT BLOCKED DOWNSTREAM
FLOW...AS COMPLICATED FAST FLOW OVER THE PAC SUPPORTS SPLIT FLOW
LOCALLY. LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PAC WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY VORTEX INTO THE SW CONUS BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH
ANTECEDENT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THIS WILL CREATE A PSUEDO
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION WITH THE WARMEST CODNS EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS INTO THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS AT BAY. DRY CONDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...AT WHICH TIME WESTERN ATLANTIC BLOCKING
LOOKS TO DIMINISH...SUPPORTING AN EASTWARD SHIFT AND BREAKDOWN OF
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE SW CONUS
UPPER LOW. CURRENT DETERMINSTIC AND MEAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH MOST LSA PASSING SOUTH OF THE FA. HENCE...LIMITED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE THU-SAT.

AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...GIVEN DOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG INFLUENCE FROM THE EASTERN UPPER LOW.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 313 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL PLACES BY
LATE MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC


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