Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 050950
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHCENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAPAROUND THIS CIRCULATION AND IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. MODELS MOVE THIS
FEATURE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND REPLACE IT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
TROUGH LATER TODAY THAT COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER IN THE
LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH TROUGH CURRENTLY
ALONG THE WASHINGTON/BC COAST PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY MORNING.

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE THURSDAY MEANING MOST OF THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE UNDER THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA/INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. EAST OF THE UPPER LOW A DRY SLOT
IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS LINCOLN/CLARK/MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. DECREASED POPS MORE WITHIN THIS DRY SLOT. THURSDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND MOHAVE
COUNTY. CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, INCLUDING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WILL BE GUSTY BUT
AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE JUST ONE OF THOSE TYPICAL SPRING EVENTS
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH.

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO FRIDAY AS IT STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE
DAY AREA WIDE WITH COLD UPPER LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA. LOOK FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE VALLEYS. LIFTED INDICES OF ZERO TO
-2  WILL LEAD TO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GFS
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND A TAD SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF SO
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOUTH OF I-40 TO BLEND BETTER WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

DUE TO SLOWER EXIT, REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY SO BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.

LEANING AWAY FROM THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY AS IT WOULD
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAK RIDGING
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND FAVORED TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20KTS PSBL THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN NEVADA, HOWEVER CIGS WILL BE AOA 12K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA. COVERAGE IN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
HIHGER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. CIGS GENERALLY 10-12K
FEET EXCEPT 7-9K FEET IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SALMEN/PIERCE

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