Extended Streamflow Guidance
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER TAUNTON MA
952 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /9/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IS
NEAR NORMAL ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST...EXCEPT ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
POINTS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE OF CONNECTICUT...NORTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR MOST OF
THE REGION...HOWEVER THE ICE JAM FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE AND IN NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL FEATURED MILDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAS RANGED FROM 0.5
DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL TO 3.5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL IN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES IN NORTHERN MAINE. IN NEW YORK STATE
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE RANGED 0.5 TO 3.0 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH THE GREATEST DEPARTURES IN WESTERN NEW YORK.

BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
SINCE APRIL 1ST...GENERALLY 1.25 INCHES OR LESS BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT
NEARING 1.75 INCHES DRIER THAN NORMAL IN SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE PREVAILED IN EASTERN NEW YORK
STATE AS WELL SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH...WITH DEPARTURES OF
0.25 INCH TO 2.00 INCHES. MEANWHILE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
STATE WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF APRIL...WITH DEPARTURES OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH.

A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED SINCE LAST UPDATE. HOWEVER
SOME CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF APRIL. THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) PHASE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE
NEGATIVE WITH TIME. IN ADDITION THE PACIFIC NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION PHASE (PNA) IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE POSITIVE AND THEN
PERHAPS NEUTRAL. THIS TELECONNECTION COMBINATION WOULD TYPICALLY
PROMOTE SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH MORE TROUGHING IN
THE EASTERN CONUS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR A CUTOFF SYSTEM.

OVERALL WE ANTICIPATE A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TO DEVELOP
DURING SECOND HALF OF APRIL. IT APPEARS THE JET STREAM PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND COMPLEX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MAY ALSO BECOME INVOLVED
DEPENDING ON THE PHASING AND TIMING OF JET STREAM SYSTEMS...AND THIS
SETUP COULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF APRIL.

ONE SUCH SYSTEM IS DEPICTED BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO IMPACT THE
REGION AROUND THE 20TH AND 21ST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM EASTERN
NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COASTAL WAVE SHOULD DEVELOP
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND THE 24TH. THIS SYSTEM COULD EVENTUALLY
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS IT INTENSIFIES. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS STATES AROUND THE 27TH.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR 23-29
APRIL 2015 INDICATES A GOOD CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

MILDER WEATHER HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED MELT...EVAPORATION AND
RUNOFF OF THE LATENT SNOWPACK DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SNOW
COVER HAS DECREASED FROM 85 PERCENT OF THE REGION TO AROUND 40
PERCENT. MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOW IS FOUND ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EVEN ACROSS
THESE AREAS THE SNOWPACK HAS RIPENED AND IS READY TO MELT.

...NEW YORK STATE...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE
INCLUDING THE EASTERN CATSILLS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

HEADING NORTH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ...NORTH COUNTRY AND AND TUG
HILL PLATEAU REGION... SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL...AND
LOCALLY 8 TO 12 INCHES NOTED AT LEWEY LAKE...SABAEL AND JERRY
SAVARIE ROAD IN THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES WITH
SOME PATCHES OF 3 TO 4 INCH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS NOTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN SHELTERED AREAS.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE GROUND IS MOSTLY BARE ACROSS CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND
MASSACHUSETTS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE BERKSHIRES WHERE SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM
A TRACE UP TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
RANGE UP TO A TRACE TO 2 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF
THE BERKSHIRES.

...VERMONT...

SNOW COVER VARIES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. THE GROUND IS BARE NEAR
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SNOW COVER IS SPOTTY BUT INCREASES HEADING TOWARDS
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND REACHES A MAXIMUM IN DEPTH COVERAGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FT. MAXIMUM DEPTHS REPORTED 18 INCHES
AT WALDEN...20 INCHES NEAR GREENSBORO AND 22 INCHES AT GROTON AS OF
APRIL 14TH. A FEW SPOTS ABOVE 2000 FT ELEVATION HAVE MORE THAN 3
FEET OF SNOW.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS VARY FROM NIL ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION...TRACE TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE MID CONNECTICUT...2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER CONNECTICUT...3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS BUT LOCALLY UP TO 8 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. THE HIGHEST
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WAS FOUND AT EAST HAVEN MOUNTAIN SUMMIT
ELEVATION 2765 FT...13 INCHES AS OF APRIL 14TH. THESE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. SEARSFORD AND
WOODFORD MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AROUND 2350 FT IN
ELEVATION WERE REPORTING HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
AROUND SIX INCHES AS OF APRIL 15TH.

FROST DEPTHS OF 6 TO 12 PLUS INCHES WERE OBSERVED AT ISLAND POND...
CORINTH...NEWCOMB AND ONE MILE EAST OF NASHVILLE.

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

VARIABLE SNOW COVER NOTED ACROSS THE STATE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.
SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS RANGE FROM NIL ALONG THE SEACOAST
UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MONADNOCKS. SNOW
DEPTHS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND RANGE FROM 2 TO 8
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE FOOT ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. MOUNT WASHINGTON WAS REPORTING A SNOW DEPTH OF 12 INCHES
AS OF APRIL 15TH.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM LESS THAN ONE INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTH INCLUDING MOST OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER BASIN. TWO TO
4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS WERE NOTED AT THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT
WOODSTOCK AND THE BAKER RIVER AT RUMNEY. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE NORTH RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES AT THE AMMONOOSUC RIVER AT BETHELHEM
WITH UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE PEAKS. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
ARE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

...MAINE...

SNOW COVER VARIES FROM NIL TO 2 INCHES FROM DOWNEAST TO THE
FOOTHILLS. SNOW COVER INCREASES HEADING ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MAINE. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INCREASES TO 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES ACROSS THE PEAKS. SNOW DEPTHS DECREASE AGAIN
HEADING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MAINE...GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE AND THE FOOTHILLS AND FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MAINE...ABOUT TWO INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINE...AND 3 TO
5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN MAINE. THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE NOTED AT THE
NINE MILE BRIDGE ALONG THE SAINT JOHN RIVER...CLAYTON ALONG THE BIG
BLACK RIVER...THE ALLAGASH...MASARDIS AT THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AND
BINGHAM ALONG THE KENNEBEC RIVER. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FROM 11 APRIL 2015...WHICH
LOOKS AT MOISTURE STATES FROM THE SPAN OF WEEKS TO
MONTHS...INDICATES ALMOST ALL OF NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND WITH
NEAR NORMAL ANTECEDENT MOISTURE STATES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOUND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND THE FINGER LAKES OF WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE WHERE UNUSUALLY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE STATES REMAIN QUITE DRY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN VERMONT...NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE SNOW COVER OR MELT. RECENT SNOWMELT
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE HAS ALLOWED NEAR SURFACE SOIL STATES TO
MOISTEN UP. NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE STATES IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
WERE NEAR NORMAL.

EXAMINING GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF
THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ( USGS )...SIGNIFICANT RECHARGE
HAS OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE WHERE RECENT SNOWMELT HAS TAKEN PLACE. GROUNDWATER LEVELS
ACROSS THESE AREAS HAVE GENERALLY RECOVERED TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE INCLUDING THE ADIRONDACKS...NORTH
COUNTRY REGION AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN AREA... GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT SOME RECHARGE IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT.

RECORD LOW FLOWS FOR APRIL 14TH WERE OCCURRING AT GRIFFIN...
HARRISVILLE AND LOUISVILLE.

LOOKING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RECENT REPORTS INDICATE
GROUNDWATER LEVELS GENERALLY RECHARGING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS DUE TO
SNOWMELT. SOME LOCATIONS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE INCLUDING WELD
AND MILLINOCKET WERE STILL REPORTING BELOW NORMAL GROUNDWATER LEVELS
WHERE RECHARGE FROM SNOWMELT WAS INCREASING.

RESERVOIR LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED FOR THE NEW YORK CITY SUPPLY SYSTEM
FROM SOME RECENT RUNOFF DUE TO SNOWMELT ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS WELL AS SOME RAINFALL. THE NEW
YORK CITY RESERVOIR SYSTEM LEVEL AS OF 14 APRIL 2015 WAS 91.2
PERCENT OR 6.9 PERCENT BELOW THE NORMAL LEVEL OF 98.1 PERCENT.

THE SCITUATE RHODE ISLAND RESERVOIR LEVEL AS OF 15 APRIL 2015 WAS
284.76 FEET WHICH IS 103.4 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AND 0.8 FEET ABOVE
THE SPILLWAY LEVEL. THIS LEVEL IS ABOUT 1.8 FEET ABOVE THE APRIL
HISTORICAL AVERAGE OF 283 FT.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

STREAMFLOWS WERE RUNNING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF
NEW YORK STATE. AN INCREASE IN RIVER FLOWS HAS BEEN NOTED DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS
PRIMARILY DUE TO RECENT RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG THE RAQUETTE RIVER WERE INDICATING BELOW
NORMAL STREAMFLOWS. HOWEVER AN INCREASE WAS NOTED NEAR PIERCEFIELD.

STREAMFLOWS WERE RUNNING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF
NEW ENGLAND AS WELL...WITH SHARPER INCREASES NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
ADJACENT TO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM PITTSBURG TO NORTH WALPOLE.
THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE RECENT WARMUP WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT.

A RECENT REPORT INDICATED THAT THE LAMOILLE RIVER WAS A FOOT OR TWO
BELOW BANKFULL BETWEEN JEFFERSONVILLE AND MORRISVILLE VERMONT AS
SEEN FROM A RECENT SURVEY ON APRIL 13TH.

MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE BARTON RIVER NEAR COVENTRY
VERMONT AND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR DALTON DURING THE MORNING OF
APRIL 16TH.

ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WEBCAM INFORMATION AND REPORTS...LIMITED
RIVER ICE REMAINS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND IN VERMONT. MOST OF
THE ICE HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR HAS BEEN FLUSHED OUT.

ACCORDING TO A RECENT REPORT...SOME ICE JAMS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE ALONG THE SAINT JOHN RIVER FROM ALLAGASH TO SAINT JOHN VILLAGE
AND ON THE AROOSTOOK IN WASHBURN. SOME FLOODING WAS OCCURRING APRIL
16TH DUE TO AN ICE JAM ALONG THE SAINT JOHN RIVER AT DICKEY NEAR THE
ALLAGASH BRIDGE. THE EAST BRANCH OF THE PENOBSCOT REMAINS MOSTLY
FROZEN FROM GRINDSTONE TO MEDWAY. THERE IS A SMALL ICE JAM
APPROXIMATELY 4 MILES DOWNSTREAM OF GRINDSTONE MAINE. THE
PISCATAQUIS RIVER IS CURRENTLY MIXED OPEN AND FROZEN...MOSTLY FROZEN
AT AND ABOVE DAMS. IN ADDITION A SMALL ICE JAM REMAINS ON THE
PLEASANT RIVER IN MILO...CAUSING SOME FIELD FLOODING. THE REMAINING
RIVER ICE IS THIN AND WEAK INCLUDING ICE JAMS. THE SMALLER STREAMS
IN MAINE ARE MOSTLY OPEN.

ICE MOVEMENT WAS RECENTLY NOTED ALONG THE SANDY RIVER BUT NOT YET
ALONG THE CARRABASSETT RIVER IN MAINE.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT FOR
ALONG THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM
MONTAGUE TO HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM AND POINTS ALONG AND BETWEEN.
THIS DUE TO COMBINED SNOWMELT RUNOFF UPSTREAM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF APRIL. STREAMFLOWS
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER ANTICIPATED GREENUP THROUGH THE
END OF APRIL AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
ABSORPTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
RUNOFF.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
YORK LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL. STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE AVERAGING
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AND THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF APRIL. HOWEVER SNOW COVER HAS
BEEN DEPLETED DUE TO THE INCREASING WARMTH AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE.
ANTICIPATED GREENUP AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE THROUGH THE END OF APRIL
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED ABSORPTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND RUNOFF.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND
WESTERN VERMONT INCLUDING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION LOOKS TO BE NEAR NORMAL. STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS HAVE INCREASED
DUE TO RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS ALSO ALLOWED FOR
A RECHARGE IN GROUNDWATER LEVELS. ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY DRIER THAN NORMAL...THUS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CONTINUED INFILTRATION. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF APRIL. THE SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ABSORB MOST OF THIS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. SNOW COVER AND SNOW DEPTHS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL. SNOW COVER IS BECOMING LESS
WIDESPREAD WITH TIME. STREAMFLOWS HAVE SHARPLY INCREASED TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS DUE TO MELT...PRIMARILY THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM
NORTH STRATFORD AND DALTON TO NORTH WALPOLE. IN ADDITION THERE IS
THE CHANCE FOR SOME ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF
APRIL.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO DOWNEAST
AND EASTERN MAINE IS NEAR NORMAL. STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS HAVE
INCREASED TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT.
HOWEVER SNOW COVER HAS BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME. THERE IS
THE CHANCE FOR SOME ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF
APRIL...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE REMAINS
ABOVE NORMAL. TWO TO FIVE INCH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS REMAIN
PRIMARILY OVER HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE WILL
CONTINUE TO GO TO WORK...MELTING THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING STREAMFLOWS. IN ADDITION THERE IS THE CHANCE
FOR SOME ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF APRIL...SO
WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

ICE JAM POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MOST OF
VERMONT AS ICE HAS EITHER BEEN FLUSHED OUT OR DISSIPATED ACROSS THIS
REGION. THE ICE JAM POTENTIAL HAS ALSO DECREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF DOWNEAST MAINE. THE THREAT HAS
PASSED ACROSS MOST OF THESE AREAS. THERE IS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ICE BUT WITH MORE OPENINGS NOTED IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE AND
IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE ICE JAM POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE AREAS
REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BRING
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT

                  ***WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/NERFC/SFPOG.HTML***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NERFC ON THURSDAY 30 APRIL 2015.

END/STRAUSS

$$



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