Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
000
AWUS01 KWNH 060255
FFGMPD
TXZ000-060653-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0055
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1054 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 060253Z - 060653Z

...SUMMARY...

THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...DISCUSSION...

CONCERN IS THAT HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING CONVECTION WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS 850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS AT THE SAME TIME
A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J PER KG IS POISED UPSTREAM AND SHOULD BE
DRAWN INTO CENTRAL TX AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT 700 MB OMEGA IS
MAXIMIZED.  THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM CPR ALREADY INDICATED A DEEP
SATURATED LAYER IN PLACE TO THE REGION.  THE TREND OF THE LAST 3
HRRR RUNS HAS BEEN TO FOCUS A QPF MAXIMUM BETWEEN 03Z AND 0730Z
ALONG A LINE FROM EAST OF TPL TO WEST OF PSN.

THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MPD WAS PULLED SOUTH OF THAT LINE TO
COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING
CONVECTION FORMING IN THE MOISTURE RICH INFLOW REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

BANN

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32029717 31809595 31029553 29629618 29069789
            29489885 31129847


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.