Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 060721
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
321 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 00 UTC TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM THE NE GULF INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THIS CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BUT FAIRLY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE GULF SOUTH OF HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT IN THE EASTERN GULF AND 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NE GULF ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH FURTHER IN THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT
ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE NW PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 00 UTC TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST FROM GRAND CAYMAN THROUGH
CENTRAL CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO
EXTEND FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LESSENS.

ELSEWHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND COMPARATIVELY
LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THIS PATTERN
IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS
REVEALED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS OFF NE COLOMBIA. THE RESULTANT SEAS
ARE 8 TO 12 FT ACCORDING TO A RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS AND
BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THIS AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 13 FT AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00 UTC GFS WITH 12 UTC ECMWF. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT AMONG MAJOR MODELS WITH REGARD TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE BAHAMAS...BUT MINOR DIFFERENCES
REMAIN. OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS ALONG WITH SOUTH
FLORIDA RADAR DISPLAYS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRES BETWEEN WEST
PALM BEACH AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. IN ADDITION...EARLIER ASCAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SHARP TROUGH NE OF ABACO. THE LATEST
GFS INITIALIZES WELL WITH BOTH THESE FEATURES...AND INDICATES
THEY WILL MOVE TOGETHER IN A COMPLEX DUMBBELL PATTERN THROUGH LATE
TODAY...EVENTUALLY COMING TOGETHER TONIGHT AS AN ELONGATED LOW
CENTERED NEAR 31N78W. THE LATEST ECMWF INDICATES A SIMILAR
PATTERN...BUT FAVORS THE NORTHERN ROTATION AS DOMINANT AND SHOWS A
MORE ORGANIZED LOW A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GFS POSITION
IN 24 HOURS WHICH IS ACTUAL MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE.
THE UKMET REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...WITH A DEEPER LOW MORE
TO THE NORTHEAST IN 24 HOURS. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE GFS AND
EC FORECAST POSITION RAISE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND POINT TO A SLOW
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TODAY WITH A DRIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS IS
CORROBORATED BY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG NHC BAM GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE
INDICATIONS OFF SE FLORIDA OF THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION...THE GFS
MAY BE MORE CORRECT SHOWING A COMPLEX AND ELONGATED LOW. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE ROUGHLY THE SAME FOR MARINE INTERESTS...20 TO 30 KT
WINDS WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE OF THE BAHAMAS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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