Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 042026
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
126 PM PDT MON MAY 4 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.


LTST NCEP SFC MAP ANALYZED DSIPTG CDFNT ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE
OFSHR ZNS. SFC WINDS RMN WK INVOF THE BNDRY WITH CONDS TO 15 KT
RETURNED IN THE LTST ASCAT METOP-A OVERPASS FROM JUST AFTR 18Z.
STGR WINDS TO 25 KT WERE RETURNED ACRS THE FAR WRN PZ5 WTRS INVOF
OF APRCHG SFC TROF IN THE S QUAD OF 1003 MB SFC LOW CENTERED NR
51N133W. AS ITS ASSOCIATED UPR LOW PASSES JUST N OF/OR ALONG THE
WASH WTRS...BASED ON THE LATEST SREF PROB GUID AND VRY COLD H5
TEMPS/STEEP LAPSE RATES...WL CONT TO CARRY TSTMS CHANCE ACRS PZ5.

THE GRIDS/TEXT FCST PKG THIS AFTN WILL CONT TO BE BASED ON 12Z GFS
30M WINDS INTO 12Z SAT. WILL THEN SWITCH TO 12Z ECMWF THEREAFTER.

A SEASONAL PATTERN IS XPCTD TO PREVAIL ACRS THE EPAC THRUT THE
ENTIRE FCST PD AS HIGH PRES NOSES E-WARD AND A THERMAL TROF RMNS
STNRY ALONG THE CAL CST. THE RESULTANT PRES GRAD SHUD BE STG ENUF
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MIN GALES...WITH MOD TO HI CONFDC...AND ONSET
OF WARNING WINDS STILL XPCTD AT 00Z WED PER LATEST 12Z GUID. THE
LATEST MODEL CYCLES DO HINT AT AREAL CVRG POSSBLY XTNDG FARTHER
N-WARD CREEPING INTO ZN PZZ820... BUT FOR NOW WL LIMIT GALES TO
JUST THE INNER ZNS PZZ825 AND PZZ830 ADJACENT TO THE WTRS N-NW OF
SAN FRAN BAY AND PT REYES. IF UPCOMING 18Z/00Z MODELS RMN CONSISTENT
WUDNT BE SURPRISED IF OVRNGT SHIFT XTNDS GALE COVERAGE.

DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF AT THE VERY END OF THE FCST PRD IGNORES THE
12Z GFS OUTLIER SOLN THAT DVLPS A STG GALE FORCE LOW ACRS THE
WASH/OREG WTRS LATE SAT ONWARDS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS OUTLIER RUN DURING THIS TIME EITHER.

SEAS...SIG WVHT FCST WL MIRROR THE WIND GRIDS. WL USE THE 12Z ENP
INTO SAT AT 12Z THEN USE THE 12Z WAM ONWARDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE TUE INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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