Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 060901
SWOD48
SPC AC 060900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 12Z SAT WILL
LIFT NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY...INTERACTING WITH A NRN-STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
FROM MANITOBA AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NERN U.S. BY WED. A WEAKER BELT
OF WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

...SATURDAY/D4...
DESPITE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EARLY SAT...THE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING
TOGETHER FOR A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS SAT AFTN/EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST LATEST GUIDANCE...THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA OVERSPREADING A VERY MOIST WARM
SECTOR /SFC DEW POINTS 65 TO NEAR 70/ AHEAD OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO W TX. 50-60 KTS OF SWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS OK/KS AS A SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER SWRN KS BY EARLY EVENING. SVR TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTN IN
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES
WITH A CONTINUED SVR THREAT OVERNIGHT.

...SUNDAY/D5...
AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TO NR THE NEB/IA BORDER...SVR TSTMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM
THE LOW INTO ERN OK/N TX...AND NEAR/SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IL. A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY BE IN PLACE SUPPORTING MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY AS HEIGHT
FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE AREA. A MIX OF STORM
MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES/CLUSTERS APPEARS PROBABLE.

...MONDAY/D5 AND BEYOND...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME AS TIMING/LOCATION
DIFFERENCES IN SFC AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES RENDERS INSUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE TO OUTLINE RISK AREAS...THOUGH SOME SVR POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST FROM PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY
REGION...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS LWR MS VALLEY. WILL DEFER
TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE AREAL DELINEATION OF SVR RISK AREAS.

..BUNTING.. 05/06/2015


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