Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 050559
SWODY2
SPC AC 050558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEB...CENTRAL/WRN KS
SWD TO WRN OK/NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS ON WED AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CA. A LEAD IMPULSE WILL LIFT
NNEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AT 12Z WED ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY TAKE SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE WED AS A DRYLINE
SHARPENS FROM WRN KS SWD INTO W TX.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ON-GOING SHOWERS/TSTMS WED
MORNING WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DETAILS OF
TSTM EVOLUTION ON WED.

AS THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS NNEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS WED...CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SFC DRYLINE ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE...WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
OVER SRN NEB AND CENTRAL/WRN KS TO 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS TX/OK.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE DRYLINE MOVES
EWD. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
THE RISK OF A TORNADO MAXIMIZED DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. AN INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL WAA DURING THE LATE EVENING MAY RESULT IN UPSCALE
GROWTH/MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN NEB WITH AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED
SVR THREAT. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND A SLOW WWD RETREAT OF THE DRYLINE LEADS TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE LATE WED EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..BUNTING.. 05/05/2015




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