Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 210911
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
311 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES.  THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO
THE PLAINS THURSDAY.  THE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER
EASTERN COLORADO TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.  AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO COLORADO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO A LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.  DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF THIS LACK OF MOISTURE.  THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE FA WEDNESDAY SO THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
OF EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WEDNEDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THE FRONT MAY
STILL BE IN THE VICINITY WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE IS
ADVERTIZED TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY MORNING. POPS WILL
INCREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY STILL IMPACTING THE AREA. DYNAMICS INCREASE
WITH TIME THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF A TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES.  CHANCE POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRATUS OR FOG TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.  BOUNDARY
LAYER RH STAYS WELL BELOW THE 90 PERCENT RH NEEDED TO PRODUCE
STRATUS AND FOG.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE
MID 30S.  MIN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S RESPECTIVELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY PRODUCING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN
BEHIND THE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME ABOUT THE
SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE EARLY IN THE
TAF WILL BE LLWS. THE WIND SHEAR MONITOR WAS INDICATING SOME
MODERATE SHEAR OCCURRING AT KGLD. ONCE AGAIN MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE
NOT CATCHING THE STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. SINCE THE
SOUNDING IS VERY SIMILAR AT KMCK HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LLWS
THERE AS WELL WITH THE SAME SPEED. LLWS WILL TURN TO THE WEST FOR
KGLD AND TO THE NORTHWEST FOR KMCK FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF
THE TAF. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. FOR KMCK WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR KMCK AND POSSIBLY
FOR AN HOUR OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE STRONGER WINDS ARE ABLE
TO MIX TO THE GROUND.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL


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