Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 180406
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1006 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE CANCELLATION OF TORNADO WATCH 69.
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE INCLUSION OF RED WILLOW COUNTY
NEBRASKA INTO TORNADO WATCH 69.  OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ONTO
THE PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VORTICITY
LOBES ROTATING AROUND IT WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALREADY IN
PLACE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND RECENT
RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AS FAR AS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED...SINCE MORNING CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO ERODE AND INSOLATION HAS BEEN LIMITED.
NONETHELESS...18Z SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES UP TO 1500 J/KG
OF SBCAPE IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE WITH ANY
AFTERNOON HEATING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KTS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS IF BETTER INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TWO DAY
TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES AND LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES HAS RESULTED IN
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOWER FFG VALUES. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT OVERALL QPF FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM MODELS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN BULLSEYES. AS A RESULT...DO NOT FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH
AREAL THREAT TO JUSTIFY A FFW AT THIS TIME.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECTING A ROBUST BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IT WILL BE IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EXITING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. PROXIMITY
TO THE UPPER LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...PRIMARILY IN EASTERN
COLORADO THEN SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE SET UP WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH EXCELLENT SHEAR BUT QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT WITH A CUT OFF LOW
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW.
FORECAST GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY REMAINS MUDDLED BUT STRONGER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTED. UNFORTUNATELY....
FRONTAL POSITION AND THUS TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

BEGINNING WITH SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. STRONGEST FORCING SLIDES NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT...DRAGGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A
FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WANES
SO CURRENTLY NOT THINKING HEAVY RAINS OR FLASH FLOODING IS A
LARGER THREAT. THEN...AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...A COLD
FRONT SURGES SOUTH AS A FINAL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ANTICIPATE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND AREAS OF
SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING UNTIL AROUND NOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP AS THIS HAPPENS. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT AND TIMING
OF PLACEMENT AND A NOTICEABLE TREND WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAINING SOUTH HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THEREFORE...DO NOT FORESEE
ANY WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ADVERTISED BY THE
CANADIAN...EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS. IN ADDITION...THE TRI-STATE
REGION IS ENVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WE SHOULD OBSERVE A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY.

ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THIS PAST SYSTEM...YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE AT A SLUGGISH PACE SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE AND WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL
RAINS IS POSSIBLE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE POPS. WITH THE LOW
HOLDING BACK TO THE WEST FOR SO LONG...FEEL WE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THE GFS AGGRESSIVELY BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH BUT THIS IS
LIKELY OVERDONE. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW FOR
NOW IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO TEMPERATURE CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT KGLD AND KMCK AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT THE THE
UPPER LOW. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. LATER TONIGHT
AS STORMS WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, STRATUS AND FOG WILL
REDEVELOP WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES. VFR
CONDITONS BY MID MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS


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