Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 041950
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES
TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST.

THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF
THE UPPER SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND.

WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEST TO EAST END OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. AFTER A LULL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS ONLY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SBCAPE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND A
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AFTER A CLOUDY
MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING.

OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWING
ONLY MINIMAL SBCAPE AVAILABLE SO SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH A NEGATIVE TILT AND PROVIDE THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS A
SEVERE THREAT WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF OVER 50KTS
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS. IF CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DRY SLOT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE PATTERN FINALLY CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING WITH VERY MOIST AIR MASS ON EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG
UPPER LOW BRINGING LOW STRATUS...MODERATE PRECIPITATION...AND
LIGHT FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. LIGHT FOG OR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM ESPECIALLY IN
THE 10-18Z TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST
AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF MORE INTENSE RAINFALL...SO I
STARTED SHOWING TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...HOWEVER WASNT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR



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