Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 061828
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1228 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EARLY EVENING FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH AMPLE SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO BREAK SO FAR BUT WITH ANY SURFACE HEATING AT ALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
ENHANCED NEAR AN ADVANCING DRY LINE. LATER THIS
EVENING...WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING EARLY AND LEAVING ONLY
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
EXPECT TO SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG SO THINK CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS. INITIATION
WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN GRADUALLY WORK ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS REACHING NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO GET BETTER FURTHER EAST SO THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

A CUT OFF LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BRING STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL WILL TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
BRING AREA PWATS IN THE VICINITY OF 0.80 TO 1.2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO COMING
TOGETHER REGARDING THE MID TO LOWER LEVEL JET PLACEMENT DIRECTLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT
TO PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR TO GET SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HIGHEST VALUES OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR APPROACHING 60 KTS.  ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO PRODUCING A LOT OF
QPF...SO WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MOVE
EASTWARD SUNDAY...CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES DRAMATICALLY DROP OFF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LIKELY WITH MOSTLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY TAPER
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  FROST IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN COLORADO DROPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY...WHICH WILL
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING WARMTH TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HEATING. UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL POSE A RISK TO BOTH TERMINALS
FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...024


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