Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 161700
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

FIRST OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL UPDATES JUST SENT. FORECAST
AREA CURRENTLY UNDER LOW CLOUDINESS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.
CURRENT THINKING FOR 1ST PERIOD (TODAY) IS FOR A PIECE OF ENERGY
TO EJECT EAST/NORTHEAST (AHEAD OF NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW NEAR
FOUR CORNERS AREA) ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AS THIS ONE REACHES THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST CORNER BY
THE END OF THE DAY ANOTHER REACHES THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY
FOR MANY AND SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW THINKING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

OVER THE NEXT 72-HOUR PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CUTOFF
500/700 MB LOW MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH AN INVERTED
MEANDERING SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO
SET UP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL.

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING...A MIX OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS GIVING THE AREA CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. THE AREA IS ALSO SEEING LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING FROM LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE WHERE THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/DRY
LINE SETS UP IN THE AREA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RW/TRW. LATEST SPC DAY-
1 GUIDANCE IS PUTTING THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE CONDITIONS...SO WILL BE PUTTING IN ENHANCED WORDING FOR
WIND/HAIL FROM 18Z THIS AFTERNOON ON THRU 06Z FRIDAY. PW/S FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT RANGE FROM 0.50" TO 1.20"...WITH AN EAST/WEST GRADIENT
IN TANDEM WITH DRYLINE SETUP. EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

GOING INTO FRIDAY...THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER AS CUTOFF UPPER LOWS REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST...PUTTING THE
FOCUS ON THE SURFACE SYSTEM WHICH IS SET TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD PUT EASTERN ZONES IN AREA
FOR BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX. FOR NOW NO ENHANCED WORDING FOR
SEVERE BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST POPS
EAST THRU THE PERIOD AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKING EAST WITH SHIFT OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE WHOLE COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES TO SEE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TREND CONTINUES FURTHER INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UPPER LOWS WILL SHIFT EAST IN TANDEM WITH
SURFACE TROUGH...PUTTING NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS IN BEST CHANCES
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WSW.

WITH OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...LOOKING FOR TOTAL QPF TO RANGE FROM
0.85" SOUTH TO ALMOST 1.44" POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S...WARMEST EAST...COOLEST WEST
WHERE SOME 50S POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S
TONIGHT TO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND PHASES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
DOWN THE WEST COAST...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
U.S....EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

EXPECT A COOLER AIRMASS TO SETTLE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA. THAT COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

MESSY TAF FORECAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS AND LIKELIHOOD OF AMENDMENTS
RATHER HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KGLD...LIFR CONDITIONS FROM TAF ISSUANCE 19Z OR 20Z BEFORE CIGS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY. CIGS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO
IFR/VLIFR RANGE AFTER 10Z. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KTS. MAY SEE ONE ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN A BREAK TIL
ROUGHLY 02Z OR SO WHEN ANOTHER ROUND MOVES IN AND IMPACTS THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z. AFTER 10Z DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LATER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LEAVING THE TERMINAL UNDER
STRATUS AND DRIZZLE/FG WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE.

KMCK...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z OR SO
BEFORE CIGS RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE CIGS LOWER SLOWLY INTO IFR CATEGORY THROUGH 07Z. CIGS
FURTHER LOWER INTO VLIFR CATEGORY FROM 08Z THROUGH REST OF TAF
PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15KTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEST IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ROUGHLY AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99


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