Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 031732
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT LINE
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AREAL COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST. BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 80S TO LOW 90S EAST OF THE BORDER.
HOTTEST AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM BENKELMAN TO
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR TODAYS RECORDS
IN JEOPARDY OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO BEING MET. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WEST...LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS TO HAVE RATHER LOW POPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS BEHIND A COLD FRONT COVERS
MUCH OF THE AREA. AREAS OF NORTON TO HILL CITY TO LEOTI AND
TRIBUNE SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOP SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. MY POPS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING CATEGORICAL POPS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 NEAR COLBY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
EAST AND SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION. WITH PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT COULD SEE EVEN COOLER READINGS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR PLUME OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND AS A RESULT HIGH POPS TUESDAY MORNING TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST/EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE MOISTURE PLUME AND LOWEST POPS ARE CO-LOCATED
WITH IT. AGAIN...MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AND WE COULD SEE A LULL
IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE POPS DECREASING SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AS A RESULT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND
70/LOW 70S FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED FEATURE WILL BRING SOME
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AREA CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WEAK
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DOES NOT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONGER STORMS. WITH SOUTHERLY ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PROFILE WEDNESDAY MORNING...DEEP SATURATION IS LIKELY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.80 AND 1.00 INCHES.
THEREFORE...RAIN SHOWERS AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND
BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.  MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN...BUT THE TIMING IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT FOR THE FEATURE
TO CONTINUE TO SPIN SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...THUS AFFECTING THE TRI STATE AREA.
BECAUSE OF THE POSITION OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN STEADY DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY UNCHANGING UPPER FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH KGLD AND KMCK...WITH
BETTER COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING LEADING TO TRANSITION
TO MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS LATE...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY BY MONDAY
MORNING POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND CONTINUING TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AFTER 11-13Z PERIOD THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AFTER 09Z...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS AT LEAST IFR CIGS WITH EASTERLY
FLOW/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING NORTH OF THE FRONT. I
INTRODUCED 2000-2500 CIG GROUPS FOR MONDAY MORNING AS A START AS I
WOULD RATHER NOT GO AS LOW AS IFR AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING LEVEL
OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT WILL BE CLOSE TO BEING TIED:

HILL CITY...92 IN 1949 (89 IS FORECAST)
MCCOOK......96 IN 1949 (93 IS FORECAST)

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
CLIMATE...99



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