Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 301139
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WED NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE
NEAR NORTHERN MONTANA BORDER...WITH SECOND TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
RIDGE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WX THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH TODAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TDS COINCIDING WITH WARMER TEMPS SO LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN RFW
EVEN ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT RELAXED CRITERIA TODAY.

OTHERWISE...NEXT CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY AND WHILE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW
CONVECTION WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME ADVECTION DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL ZONE SHARPENS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY WILL BE ALONG
FRONT AS AREA OF PERHAPS VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.
SECOND AREA OF HIGH BASED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STRONGEST...BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE NEIGHBORHOOD DATA APPEARS SOME PRECIP THREAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WEAKER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL START OUT
AS RAIN AND BEGIN TO SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

THE PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE UNDERFORECAST AS
PER OVERNIGHT VWP PRODUCT AND WITH WINDS TOTALLY DECOUPLING AT
MCCOOK THINK THAT THREAT EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE JET VEERS
AND WEAKENS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...JRM


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