Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 051630
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS TO LIFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

WITH THE FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EXPECT TO SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME STORMS LATE TODAY.  ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH...DRYER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
LOW AND STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE TRI STATE
AREA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS ALL INDICATE THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH
WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE
TROUGH TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY IN THE GFS/ECMWF
FORECASTS...WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND INCREASE CAPE
VALUES.  A STRONGER JET MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA TO HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH.  GFS FORECAST HAS AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING 80KTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PLENTY STRONG TO GIVE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS.  LOWER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALSO HAVE
GOOD CURVATURE WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC
AND HAVE BETTER JET LOCATED TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
DEFINITE AT THIS POINT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO VERY
SATURATED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CAPE IN THE PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE PERSISTENT WITH THE
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOWER NOCTURNAL JET. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA...BUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE HIGHER
PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z
THEN MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SOME WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/PRECIP MOVES IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AGAIN. FOR PERIODS
WHERE NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING MIST/FOG LIKELY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH 12-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 20Z
IN STRATUS/FOG WITH SHOWERS OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE TO MVFR FROM 21Z-23Z BEFORE FALLING TO IFR/VLIFR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WILL ROTATE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SIMILAR TO KGLD DISCUSSION. WINDS ALSO
SIMILAR TO THOSE MENTIONED IN KGLD DISCUSSION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99



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