Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160917
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
317 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

OVER THE NEXT 72-HOUR PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CUTOFF
500/700 MB LOW MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH AN INVERTED
MEANDERING SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO
SET UP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL.

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING...A MIX OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS IS GIVING THE AREA CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. THE AREA IS ALSO SEEING LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING FROM LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE WHERE THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/DRY
LINE SETS UP IN THE AREA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RW/TRW. LATEST SPC DAY-
1 GUIDANCE IS PUTTING THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE CONDITIONS...SO WILL BE PUTTING IN ENHANCED WORDING FOR
WIND/HAIL FROM 18Z THIS AFTERNOON ON THRU 06Z FRIDAY. PW/S FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT RANGE FROM 0.50" TO 1.20"...WITH AN EAST/WEST GRADIENT
IN TANDEM WITH DRYLINE SETUP. EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

GOING INTO FRIDAY...THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER AS CUTOFF UPPER LOWS REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST...PUTTING THE
FOCUS ON THE SURFACE SYSTEM WHICH IS SET TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND SHOULD PUT EASTERN ZONES IN AREA
FOR BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX. FOR NOW NO ENHANCED WORDING FOR
SEVERE BUT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST POPS
EAST THRU THE PERIOD AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKING EAST WITH SHIFT OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE WHOLE COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES TO SEE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TREND CONTINUES FURTHER INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UPPER LOWS WILL SHIFT EAST IN TANDEM WITH
SURFACE TROUGH...PUTTING NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS IN BEST CHANCES
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WSW.

WITH OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...LOOKING FOR TOTAL QPF TO RANGE FROM
0.85" SOUTH TO ALMOST 1.44" POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S...WARMEST EAST...COOLEST WEST
WHERE SOME 50S POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S
TONIGHT TO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FRIDAY/SATURDAY NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND PHASES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
DOWN THE WEST COAST...FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
U.S....EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

EXPECT A COOLER AIRMASS TO SETTLE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA. THAT COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

FOR KGLD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SCT015 SCT250 GIVING WAY TO BKN012-015 FROM 08Z-16Z...THEN
BKN060-100. SCATTERED CONDITIONS COULD GIVE WAY TO 3SM IN FOG
FROM 08Z-12Z. VCSH/-SHRA POSSIBLE AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT TIMING UNCERTAINTY WILL ALLOW FOR A WAIT FOR
DEVELOPMENT TO PUT IN FORECAST. WINDS ENE 10-20KTS THRU
12Z...THEN NNE AROUND 10 KTS...VEERING TO THE SE 10-20KTS BY 22Z
THURSDAY. WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE 06Z-12Z...14050KTS.

FOR KMCK...A MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES WILL
OCCUR AS CEILINGS WILL GO FROM BKN200 TO BKN035 BY 08Z...THEN
MIXING FROM BKN003 UP TO BKN025 FROM 08Z INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 3-6SM IN FOG POSSIBLE 08Z-19Z. VCSH/-SHRA POSSIBLE BEFORE
08Z AND AFTER 19Z. WINDS ENE 5-15KTS WITH WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL
FROM 06Z-11Z...14050KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN



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