Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 292309
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
509 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. POPS WILL
BE NIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING SILENT
POPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.  LIFT/CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  AM THINKING
STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHORT WAVE SINCE
THAT IS WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT/BEST MOISTURE WILL BE.  ELSEWHERE
THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS.


THE BEST 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
THERE.  BASED ON A LOCAL PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY PROGRAM...THOUGHT
ABOUT GOING HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO VERY HIGH
CHANCES FROM PROGRAM.  HOWEVER WILL DID NOT TO GO TOO HIGH SINCE
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL TWO DAYS OUT.  STORM MOTIONS DO LOOK
FAIRLY SLOW...AROUND 10-15KTS...SO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  LOOKING AT THE 0-6KM SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOWEVER BOTH PARAMETERS ARE ON THE LOW END...SO AM THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE FIRST WAVE EXITS THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING.  RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE AREA LOOK BETTER THAN WITH
THE FIRST WAVE DUE TO STRONGER MORE WIDESPREAD LIFT WITH THE TROUGH
AS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY.  BEHIND IT HIGHS
WILL FALL AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.  MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL WITH THIS TROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGHER 1000-
500MB MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP FROM THE GULF OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE
TROUGH APPROACHES.  BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON
MONDAY BASED ON THE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TUESDAY THE
INSTABILITY LOOKS JUST AS GOOD BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY
LIGHT. DUE TO THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND THE
FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.  EARLY NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA COOLING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 507 PM MDT WED APR 29 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...024



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