Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 252245
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
445 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SKIES HAVE BECOME
PSUNNY/MSUNNY WITH AREA IN BETWEEN EXITING SYSTEM TO OUR EAST... AND
APPROACHING SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKIES. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F.

SCATTERED -RW CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
COLORADO...TRUDGING SLOWLY ENE. IT WILL BE THIS SYSTEM THAT PROVIDES
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SURFACE LOW ALONG
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING...THRU THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY 12Z SUNDAY...SYSTEM NEARING SW CORNER OF
FORECAST AREA..WITH UPPER LOW FOLLOWING SLOWLY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/GREAT LKS REGION. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL GIVE THE
CWA AN EASTERLY FETCH THRU THE TONIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH EASTERLY FLOW...WILL
PUT FOCUS OF HIGHEST POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES ESPECIALLY EASTERN
COLORADO...BEFORE SHIFTING WSW ON SUNDAY AS LOW SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH CWA NOT ON SPC/S OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...THE AREA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER...HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING LOW CLOUD DECK TO FORM OVER
AREA TONIGHT. AREAS AWAY FROM MUCH OF THE FRONTAL INFLUENCE WILL
HAVE SHOWERS...AND EVEN DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY FOR NE ZONES. WILL
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SET TO ENCOMPASS AREA...HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG THRU THE OVERNIGHT...TAPERING TO PATCHY FOG
FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...BEST DYNAMICS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS/CONVECTION
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES BASED ON THE ESE FLOW OVER
THE CWA WITH RIDGING NORTH AND LOW SETTING UP TO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. INFLUENCE OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH INCREASES DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...SO HAVE SLOW TAPER IN POPS FROM NE TO SW DURING THE
DAY TO JUST -RW FOR NE AREAS.

FORECASTED HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE HEAVILY AFFECTED BY EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER WITH SYSTEM PASSAGE. AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AREA WILL
BE SLOWLY CAPPED AND WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL
ONLY RANGE NEAR 50F AT BEST. WARMEST EAST DUE TO RIDGE
INFLUENCE...COOLEST IN NE COLORADO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40-RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHERLY TRACK
WITH BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. THERE IS STILL
GOOD CONSISTENCY IN A LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THESE PERIODS AT KEPT SIMILAR
TREND IN POPS/QPF. TRANSITION SHOULD BE TOWARDS DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST WITH
CHANCES TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS
STILL A VERY LIGHT PRECIP SIGNAL WITH SECOND H3 JET BEHIND EXITING
UPPER LOW...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AN OTHER THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES IN OUR WEST/NORTHWEST I AM NOT ANTICIPATING MEASURABLE
WITH THIS LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY (LIKE
SUNDAY) WILL BE TIED TO COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND WITH
COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE
BETTER CHANCE FOR STRATUS/PRECIP IS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING SHOULD COMBINE
WITH WAA IN OUR WEST/NORTHWEST TO ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM IN TO THE LOW
TO MID 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY AND NEXT
WEEKEND. BY NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THIS FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO WHICH COULD BE CARRIED THROUGH THE MEAN WIND INTO THE NW
PART OF OUR CWA. CONSENSUS SHOWS A WEAK PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR NW
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THIS PATTERN...SO I MENTION IN PLACE...HOWEVER
I DID LIMIT THUNDERSTORM MENTION PRIMARILY TO AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z WITH AN EAST WIND NEAR 12KTS.
FROM 05Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD TERMINAL WILL BE IN
STRATUS AND MIST WITH IFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS. WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL IN THE 07Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
BRINGING A CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. FROM 16Z THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AROUND OR OVER THE
TERMINAL. WINDS FLIRTING WITH 12-13KTS FROM THE EAST...COULD BE A
BIT HIGHER AND GUSTY AT TIMES.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z WITH AN EAST WIND NEAR 11KTS.
FROM 05Z-19Z TERMINAL WILL BE IN STRATUS AND MIST WITH IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS. AFTER 20Z CIGS SLOWLY RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY. MAY SEE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 17Z-22Z TIMEFRAME AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE NEARS THE TERMINAL OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY. CANT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. WINDS FLIRTING WITH 12-13KTS FROM THE
EAST...COULD BE A BIT HIGHER AND GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99


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