Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 200855
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY
AS AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
EASTERN COLORADO.

OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST FA, THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST FA THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT
WITH ACCUMULATION AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. SUBSIDENCE
AND THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND NAM PLACE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FA WEDNESDAY AND THEN
LIFT IT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH
SOME CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO COVER THE CONTINGENCY OF THE FRONT MOVING
NORTH BEFORE EVENING. MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FA WEDNESDAY EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 TODAY. MID TO UPPER 60S
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY COOLING TO THE MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID
30S TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD COOL TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CONUS THAT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ALL GENERALLY
AGREE TO TIMING OF THE TROUGH ARRIVING THURSDAY AND PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE RUNS ARISE AS TO THE
POSITIONING AND TILT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A NEGATIVE TILT MOVING INTO THE TRI STATE AREA.  IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES PRESENT...UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXISTS. HOWEVER...FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAY NOT BE ENOUGH SURFACE
HEATING TO WEAKEN THE CAP TO ALLOW FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY LACKING. IT SHOULD BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS SCENARIO IN THE COMING DAYS.

ONCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND FROM THE
SAME SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CONUS AS THE ORIGINAL UPPER WAVE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT IN REGARD TO TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE...BUT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID/UPPER
LEVEL AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SMALL AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW TO
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KGLD. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW REACHING KGLD SO
WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OUT. FOR KMCK...LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER


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