Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 060837
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR DATA.
GENERAL TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS KEPT AS FAR AS RAINFALL
CHANCES. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE
IS SOME LINGERING LIFT OVER THE AREA SO LOW RAINFALL CHANCES SEEM
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/WY BORDER BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY THEN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FIRST BATCH OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY THE END OF THE DAY WE MAY SEE A TAPERING
OFF OF AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE SOME DRIER AIR STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIP MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW TO UPPER 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

A CUT OFF LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BRING STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL WILL TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
BRING AREA PWATS IN THE VICINITY OF 0.80 TO 1.2 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE VALUES ARE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  MODEL FORECASTS ARE ALSO COMING
TOGETHER REGARDING THE MID TO LOWER LEVEL JET PLACEMENT DIRECTLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT
TO PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR TO GET SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HIGHEST VALUES OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR APPROACHING 60 KTS.  ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO PRODUCING A LOT OF
QPF...SO WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS MOVE
EASTWARD SUNDAY...CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES DRAMATICALLY DROP OFF ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LIKELY WITH MOSTLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY TAPER
OFF SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  FROST IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN COLORADO DROPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY...WHICH WILL
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING WARMTH TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. CEILINGS HAVE
IMPROVED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO FOR BOTH SITES. WITH ALMOST ALL
MODEL DATA INDICATING THE CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IFR...HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER AGAIN OR IF THEY
WILL LOWER. LOOKING TO THE SOUTH MVFR CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD
DOWNSTREAM OF KMCK WITH VFR CEILINGS SOUTH OF KGLD. ONE ENSEMBLE
MODEL INDICATES CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AGAIN FOR BOTH SITES.
THIS MODEL DID INDICATE THE IMPROVING CEILINGS...WHICH GIVES MORE
FAITH THAT THIS MODEL DEPICTION OF CEILINGS OVERNIGHT IS ACCURATE.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING...WITH VFR
CEILINGS BY THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR DURING THE EVENING.

THERE MAY BE SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL



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