Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281730
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES/LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TODAY AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET AND SURFACE FRONT IS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE UNDERDOING THE STRENGTH OF THE JET
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE GFS WAS DOING THE BEST. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM,AND ECMWF
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS
AND GEM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THICK MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HARD TO
PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHAT IS CAUSING THIS. COULD BE THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME DEFORMATION AHEAD OF INCOMING SYSTEM AND/OR
WEAK DEEP UPSLOPE. NOT SURE HOW LONG THIS WILL HANG AROUND SINCE
MODELS NOT TOTALLY GRASPING THIS.

THE MODELS WANT TO SAY THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE DAY BUT THAT WAS FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER COMING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WITH WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE MORE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...UPSLOPE WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAVING COOLER
TEMPERATURES... COOLED OFF MAXES A LITTLE. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD
COVER HANGS AROUND LONGER...ADDITIONAL COOLING OF MAXES MAY BE
NEEDED.

IN REGARDS TO CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...NOT
TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS THINKING. LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF INCOMING JET WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING. THERE IS DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WITH
GOOD LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE SHORTWAVE AND JET...MODELS
NOT SHOWING A LOT OF LIFT WHICH AM A LITTLE LEARY OF. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE AREA AFFECTED BUT KEPT THE SPRINKLES GOING.

FOR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER...COOLED OFF
THE LOW TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. AGAIN LOOKS LIKE AN UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WIND FIELD DUE TO
ANOTHER WEAK PRESSURE/COLD SURGE MOVING THROUGH. SO EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER OVER TODAYS...I DID COOL THEM OFF A
LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BE WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A CLEAR CUT PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT LOOKS TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ONE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN ANOTHER ONE OVERNIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE SHORTWAVES.

ALL MODELS SETUP A SURFACE BOUNDARY BUT THEY DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHERE
WITH MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST. THE GFS IS BY ITSELF IN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. REMAINING OUTPUT IN GENERAL HAVE THE BOUNDARY BY LATE
AFTERNOON FROM ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER INTO EXTREME EASTERN
COLORADO. MODELS DIFFER ON THE INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INCOMING SHORTWAVES. THE GFS HAS THE LEAST
WITH THE NAM THE MOST WHILE THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE INBETWEEN.

DUE TO THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...WEAK AND
UNORGANIZED FORCING ALOFT...AND BOUNDARY POSITION DIFFERENCES...
REALLY HARD TO PIN TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME
ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS ARE HINTING/LEANING TOWARD HAVING MORE
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM WHAT NORMALLY
HAPPENS AROUND HERE. IF THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MORE
COHESIVE/ORGANIZED FORCING IS REALIZED THEN NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE
A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BUT ALSO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. BASED ON TRENDS/LATEST MODEL
DATA...DID RAISE MAXES TO ABOVE 80 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE
TROUGH ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ZONAL CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED 700MB TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS ON SUNDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. EARLY INDICATIONS
SUGGEST WEAK THETA-E GRADIENTS AND MODERATE OMEGA VALUES WHICH
WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

GFS IS BECOMING A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY WITH THE ECMWF
REMAINING SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE LOW. I REMAIN RELATIVELY
CONFIDENT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE SHAPE ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD ON
TUESDAY...MOVING INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT HOWEVER
IT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS MAY INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE TAF AS A RIDGE AT 850MB MOVES
OVER THE AREA. WINDS AT KGLD WILL BECOME MORE BREEZY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...WHILE KMCK REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE ENTIRE TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TLM
AVIATION...JTL


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