Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 011951
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE IN
PALACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE H5/H7 TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF ROTATING
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPARENT ON UPSTREAM RADARS MOVING
EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE CWA EXTENDING SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA OR SPREADING EAST INTO THE
CWA AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH FRONT IN PLACE AND
AIR MASS DESTABILIZING THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE. HIGH CINH
VALUES CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE INHIBITING CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
THE CWA DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
IT APPEARS THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR INCREASING CHANCES
FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL FROM RAP/HRRR
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS
RUNNING HIGH REGARDING CAPE VALUES MOST OF THE DAY...THOUGH AS
SKIES HAVE CLEARED THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS DOES SHOW 500-1000 KG/J
ML CAPE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. SHEER IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE AND AT THIS POINT SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE LIMITED.
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OR
TRANSITION EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS A SHARP
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE.

TUESDAY...VERY GOOD WAA IS ADVERTISED AND WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S ACROSS THE
CWA...POSSIBLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE EAST. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM INITIATION NEAR SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG CO/KS BORDER POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z...OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES
ARRIVE LATER IN THE EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY UNSTABLE AIR
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH NAM ADVERTISING 1500-2500 J/KG OF ML
CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHEER IS A LITTLE BETTER THAN TODAY WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEER IN EXCESS OF 35KT. WITH THIS IN MIND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL
SHEER LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND CONTINUE TO BE MAIN CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL FORM ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS LOW AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ON MONDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST US AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
COLORADO ON TUESDAY. LOOKING AT THE 500MB AND 700MB HEIGHT FIELDS...
A NEGATIVE TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AND AMPLIFY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. CAPE AND
OMEGA VALUES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
HOWEVER CAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY MODEST AT THIS POINT. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS WELL. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW THE CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION... CONTINUING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY HIGH SHEAR... MARGINAL
CAPE AND DCAPE... AND HIGH PW VALUES WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN... SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS MAINLY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHEAR BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY.

EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES AS WE
HEAD INTO THURSDAY AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT POP REMAINS IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
MODELS AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS CONTINUING THE TREND OF BEING MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TROUGH STRENGTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF
SURFACE FRONT AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME
THERE WAS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE
TAF. I INCLUDED A VCSH AT KGLD AS BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL INDICATES
SCATTERED COVERAGE FROM THE WEST AND LESS COVERAGE IN THE
NORTHEAST NEAR KMCK. MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE REGARDING
INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TML
AVIATION...DR


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